Mark Carney seeks closer Turkey ties. Will Trump object? Should Canada?

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Like many NATO members, Canada is working to replenish its artillery ammunition stocks and expand production. Turkey and Canada could forge a deal on conventional ammunition and drones, Ciddi says. Rather than upsetting Washington, he suggested any such deal could be sold as the NATO burden-sharing Trump has long advocated for.

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“If this is spun the right way,” said Ciddi, “there could be … a foreseeable sort of road for Trump actually praising anything that’s reached.”

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Because Turkey needs energy, the analysts expect Erdoğan and Carney to have substantive talks about LNG and nuclear power.

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Turkey is “always looking for energy and know-how,” said Momani, calling it the “sector to watch” from this week’s talks. She sees nuclear energy as the strongest of the prospects, followed by defence, because Turkey wants energy supplies and technology, while Canada has the expertise.

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Coşkun pointed to civilian nuclear cooperation, as well as possible Canadian LNG sales and mining expertise, as strong possible connections. “Potentially, Turkey’s civilian nuclear program is an area where Canada can provide significant help and can present itself as a very useful partner,” he said.

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The final area, of course, is bilateral trade between Canada and Turkey.

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Given that the volume of trade is currently very low between the two, Ciddi said the “easiest thing that they could conclude is a major expansion of bilateral trade,” noting how Turkey offers advanced manufactured goods.

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Furthering discussions about a free trade deal and increasing Canadian investments in Turkey is important to Erdoğan, says Coşkun, given that Turkey faces potential disruptions with the EU’s proposed “Made in Europe” rules, which could favour EU-made products over Turkish goods.

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“Canada can’t offset the amount of trade that Turkey has with Europe, which is its biggest trading partner, but at the end of the day, to sort of broaden that agenda would be a welcome sign for Ankara, and something that Erdoğan can use positively, I think,” he said.

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Momani sees Canada as the more eager trade partner of the two, given the trade tensions with the U.S., and says a successful visit would need to show “real dollars and cents, and companies doing business with each other.”

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“Whether the results will match the rhetoric, which I’m sure will be flowery and positive, we’ll see,” said Aliriz.

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Ciddi, meanwhile, is concerned by the political consequences of greater Canadian defence engagement with Turkey. “I would say, look, Canada should go elsewhere,” he said, noting that Erdoğan gains prestige from Carney’s visit.

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“We’ve seen Turkish escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean towards Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, potentially a threat to the Israelis in the Middle East. We’ve seen Turkish largesse and growth of military activity inside Syria,” he said, pointing to how the “Europeans don’t say anything.”

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“They don’t say anything because Erdoğan has convinced them that Turkey is a vital security partner, by selling them weapons — high-end, medium-end weapons such as drones, such as combat armoured carrier vehicles, munitions, all this sort of stuff.”

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Rather than worrying about Trump’s response, he advises Carney to consider what closer Canada-Turkey defence ties could mean for Turkey.

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“We’ve seen the consequences of major Western allies engaging with Turkey and enabling Erdoğan’s regime,” he said. “A power such as Canada should not engage with the Erdoğan government. Anything that Erdoğan does comes at a cost, and I would say that cost is a reputational cost.”