John Ivison: Carney’s pro-immigration temptation beckons the cobra effect

Prime Minister Mark Carney has already indicated that he is considering a “controlled increase” in the population. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK/Postmedia

Article content

Federal Liberals could be forgiven a sense of hubris on viewing recent polls that suggest more than half of all voters support their party.

Article content

But they should remember that the balloon can be popped by a single pinprick of reality.

Article content

Article content

This week’s economic outlook by the parliamentary budget officer contains some unpleasant reading for the government that suggests trouble ahead.

Article content

Article content

Growth is expected to slow relative to previous reports, and deficits are expected to grow. Ottawa will fail to meet its declining deficit-to-GDP fiscal anchor and public debt charges will rise to $83 billion a year within five years (from an expected $59.3 billion this year).

Article content

Article content

The worsening short-term picture is caused by U.S. tariffs, Canadian counter-measures, and higher energy prices. But a recurring drag on economic growth, the report said, is slower population growth.

Article content

The answer would appear to be simple: bring in more people.

Article content

But immigration is at once a remedy to slow growth and also the potential pinprick that could burst the Liberal balloon.

Article content

This is the so-called cobra effect: an attempted solution that might make the problem worse (named after the British Raj policy of paying a bounty for dead cobras that encouraged people to breed them).

Article content

There has been a significant negative shift in public opinion on immigration since 2023/24, after the Trudeau government shattered the positive consensus by allowing millions of temporary workers and students into the country after the pandemic.

Article content

Article content

By November 2025, 47 per cent of Canadians said there were too many immigrants coming into Canada, compared to just 22 per cent who said the same in 2020.

Article content

Article content

Nearly two in three Canadians now think that immigration puts too much pressure on housing and public services.

Article content

The Carney government responded by cutting the number of temporary workers, students and asylum seekers.

Article content

The 0.5 per cent increase in the population from July 2025 to July 2026 was the lowest percentage increase since 1915/16 — a significant drop from the 2.8 per cent recorded in the 2023/24 year.

Article content

The non-permanent resident share of the population has dropped from 7.2 per cent a year ago to 6.7 per cent and the government aims to reduce it to five per cent.

Article content

The permanent resident target was cut from 500,000 for this year under the Trudeau government to 380,000.

Article content

But pressure is building to return to more historic norms.

Article content

Canada’s fertility rate is low at 1.26 children per woman, and its population is aging, with one in five Canadians now over 65. A construction study by Deloitte suggests another half a million workers will be needed by 2030 than can be provided by the domestic population.