David Bercuson: Let Alberta separatism die, or it will be the end of the UCP

Alberta separatists gather for an Alberta Independence Rally in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada on October 17, 2026. Alberta voters decide next week if they want the oil-rich province to begin the process of separating from Canada, a pivotal test for the country as it confronts a hostile United States. Photo by Megan Albu / AFP via Getty Images

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On Monday night, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith declared that the result of Question 10 of her ten-part referendum — the question on whether to remain in Canada or to begin the process of attempting to leave — was an overwhelming endorsement by voters on the side of remaining within a united Canada. With some 75 per cent of Albertans stating that they wish to remain, she received the answer she sought.

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At the same Jeffrey Rath, the Stetson-wearing lawyer and political activist leading the Alberta Prosperity Project, one of the three main secessionist factions in Alberta, called the vote a victory since some 25 per cent of the voters did opt for a future referendum on secession.

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Rath’s declaration was akin to President Donald Trump’s constant insistence that he won the 2020 presidential election. Which he most certainly did not.

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What Rath failed to point out was that of the 493,000 voters who opted for a binding referendum, some opted for Option 2 to increase Alberta’s leverage in political and constitutional discussions with the rest of Canada, much as Quebec has been doing for over 60 years now. Others wanted to wait for a better option than immediate secession, and still others were genuine secessionists who either want to leave Canada as soon as possible or join the United States

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As for the premier, she swept the table. Not only because of the huge expression of support for her position of staying in Canada, but because the other nine questions — dealing largely with changes to the Constitution on provincial autonomy, and Alberta laws concerning immigration — mirrored her long-standing position to expand provincial powers. Only two questions received a majority answer of ‘no’ votes as of Wednesday: that provincial governments should receive compensation if they opt out of federal programs and that provinces should have a say in the appointment of federal judges.

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To be clear, neither she nor the great majority of Albertans are anti-immigration. As she herself declared Monday night, immigration is essential for the future of her province and of Canada. But the almost unbounded flow of people into Canada — and Alberta — during the Trudeau years has been a disaster and most people know it. In Edmonton and Calgary, where half of the province lives, wait times at hospital emergency rooms have swelled. The roads are too crowded. Rents have expanded rapidly.

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We took in too many, too quickly, all because of the badly mistaken Trudeau policy of trying to grow Canada’s economy by adding millions of new people. Smith merely sought feedback on her desire to have as much control over immigration as Quebec has over its immigration.

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The results of the nine questions on immigration and the Constitution were much closer than the question on remaining in Canada. The fact that none of those questions lie within the purview of the Alberta government alone may be one reason for that result. But despite the closer margin, Smith has now been assured that most Albertans do want greater control over provincial matters as they see them, even though they show a great loyalty to Canada.