Anthony Furey: Bradford, Chow neck-and-neck breaks Toronto’s left-wing consensus

From left, Toronto Coun. Brad Bradford and Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow. Photo by Dave Gordon, Cindy Ord /Getty Images

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The Toronto mayoral race between incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow and Councillor Brad Bradford is now neck-and-neck. Whatever happens next, this is a huge upset to the assumption that Toronto is a left-wing city craving left-wing policies.

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What this tells us, regardless of who wins on Monday night, is that Toronto residents shouldn’t be taken for granted by the NDP and that they do care about fiscal stability and public safety.

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The advance voting earlier this month saw a record turnout. This could mean that voters went out early in large numbers because they want change. It could also mean that the incumbent mayor was efficient in getting her supporters to pledge their vote in advance.

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Or it could just be a sign of the times. Advance turnout in elections has been increasing generally. Political organizers now tend to view election day not so much as the main event but as the last day among many to get your voters to the polls.

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Chow likely has an advantage when it comes to getting out the vote because her base is made up of more organized voter blocs that can be communicated to via lists and outreach networks. Think the labour movement, renters associations and student groups. From this perspective, if the polling is tied, then Chow will likely win, because she can actually get her people out.

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That may not come to pass this way though. Bradford is doing well among older voters, the much valued “boomer” vote. They’re less easy to corral as a voter bloc but that’s OK because they show up by themselves — voting has been ingrained in them for decades. Their turnout is more reliable than younger demographics.

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This is why it’s anyone’s race at this point. The two candidates are effectively tied in the polls but Bradford is the candidate who has been gaining in recent weeks. There’s a saying among political strategists, that you want to peak on election day, and that may be what’s currently happening with Bradford.

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Regardless of the outcome, we are seeing widespread acknowledgement that something in Toronto must change. People agree that something must be done to stop the decline.

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Bradford’s campaign has only really heated up after he leaned into clear policies focused on really turning around the city — like tax relief, public safety and getting traffic moving. (I appreciate that the key issues I championed when I ran in the previous election are now integral parts of Bradford’s platform.)

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Rather than serving to push people away from his campaign towards Chow, these common sense policies have drawn people to him. The Chow campaign clearly notices this.

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Olivia Chow recently held a press conference with former Liberal cabinet minister and current council candidate Nathaniel Erskine-Smith to announce the re-opening of the 54 Division police station in East York, which was closed almost a decade ago.