Sutcliffe campaign's internal poll shows sizable lead for incumbent mayor

Mark Sutcliffe, first elected as Ottawa mayor in 2022 and seeking re-election this fall, addresses a media conference at a recent event. Photo by Tony Caldwell /POSTMEDIA

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With less than two weeks left in the campaign, Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe has opened a sizable lead among decided voters, according to internal polling numbers from Abacus Data.

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Sutcliffe’s campaign commissioned the poll, which was collected online from 1,000 respondents in late September by Abacus chief pollster David Coletto on behalf of the Sutcliffe campaign.

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“If the Ottawa municipal election were held today, and these were the candidates for Mayor on your ballot, who would you vote for?” the survey asked, while providing a brief description of each candidate.

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Sutcliffe held a 36-point lead over the closest challenger among decided voters, according to the poll, with 52 per cent of decided voters choosing Sutcliffe. Leiper was at 16 per cent and Saravanamuttoo and Lawson both at 14 per cent.

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Another four per cent of decided voters said they would vote for someone else among the 14 candidates running for mayor.

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The data for decided voters excluded those who are undecided and those who said they would not vote. Twenty-three per cent of all respondents said they were undecided.

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There were 755 respondents who said they had decided on a candidate and 534 respondents listed as “likely” voters, defined by Abacus as decided voters who say they are “absolutely certain to vote.”

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Half (50 per cent) of those likely voters chose Sutcliffe, with Saravanamuttoo edging into second place with 17 per cent, Leiper at 16 per cent and Lawson at 13 per cent. Three per cent said they would vote for someone else.

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Among all 1,000 eligible voters surveyed by Abacus, Sutcliffe led with 39 per cent over Leiper at 12 per cent, Saravanamuttoo at 11 per cent and Lawson at 10 per cent.

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Three per cent said they would vote for a different candidate and two per cent said they would not cast a ballot in this year’s municipal election, which is being held on Oct. 26.

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Sutcliffe held a 27-point lead over his nearest challenger in data collected from all eligible voters, according to the Abacus poll.

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The survey was completed online, with respondents drawn from several online research panels through the PureSpectrum network, according to Abacus Data.

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“Because the sample comes from online panels and is not a random probability sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated,” Abacus said. “A comparable probability sample of 1,000 would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.”