How George R.R. Martin’s Mistake in A Dance With Dragons Explains The Winds of Winter Delay

Everyone worries that George R.R. Martin may never finish The Winds of Winter, and while many blame his writing pace or waning motivation, the real issue might be something deeper. Perhaps it was built into the story itself.

We already know his struggle with the manuscript, as evident in his lengthy journey filling in those 1,100 pages over the span of 15 years. And even now, he still isn’t close to finishing the sixth book in A Song of Ice and Fire. The real bottleneck may not be speed, but perhaps the sheer complexity of where the story is trying to go.

The Winds of Winter’s Flaw Stems From Beyond A Dance with Dragons

The Winds of Winter isn’t the only book from Martin’s series that faced a massive delay. A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons also took their time before reaching completion. Martin faced a stumbling block while writing both novels – the Meereenese knot, the viewpoint problem, the lengthy manuscript that had to be split into two parts, and so on.

Although the author has admitted he’s unsure whether he can write as quickly as he did during A Storm of Swords, the process would likely go more smoothly if the story were already fully mapped out. The problem lies in the fact that as soon as he finished A Dance with Dragons, the narrative threads began to unravel and expand again.

The number of major characters, each with their own distinct arc, is already a daunting challenge, especially when you factor in the minor characters with storylines of their own. A Dance with Dragons ended with far more lingering questions and unresolved threads than resolutions. Martin even said that The Winds of Winter will resolve these issues, and this is exactly why it’s taking so long.

Jon Snow is stabbed by his own men at Castle Black, while Daenerys Targaryen is stranded in the Dothraki Sea, struggling to maintain control of her dragons. Tyrion Lannister joined the Second Sons, and Arya Stark continues her training with the Faceless Men in Braavos.

Bran Stark dives deeper into his abilities with the Three-Eyed Crow, while Sansa Stark remains in hiding in the Vale. Meanwhile, Stannis Baratheon marches on Winterfell, and Cersei Lannister has just endured her walk of atonement in King’s Landing.

Indeed, a single book can’t realistically contain all the answers to this unless Martin splits it into two. More importantly, the narrative has reached its most complicated stage yet because whatever happens in The Winds of Winter will ultimately shape the final form of A Dream of Spring.

The delay isn’t simply Martin’s writing block but a narrative holdup, where every remaining storyline is so tightly interconnected that moving one piece inevitably reshapes all the others.

ASOIAF Would’ve Been Complete Now If Original Notes Were Followed

Martin envisioned A Song of Ice and Fire as a trilogy, and had he stuck with this plan and his 1993 outline, fans wouldn’t be bombarding him with constant reminders to finish his books.

It’s perfectly normal for a story to evolve away from its original structure, but Martin’s preference for a gardening style of writing and his refusal to make an outline may have created more complications than benefits. Because the plot expanded in ways he did not expect, it’s now bursting at the seams, and it’s now difficult to compress or streamline without messing up the threads.

There’s no telling when he’s going to finish the book, but judging by his latest update, he didn’t seem to make that much progress in the last four years. That said, it might be unfair to read too much into the pace alone. Given how dense and interconnected the remaining plotlines are, even small amounts of progress could represent major structural breakthroughs rather than page count.

A Song of Ice and Fire	Release Date
A Game of Thrones	1996
A Clash of Kings	1998
A Storm of Swords	2000
A Feast for Crows	2005
A Dance with Dragons	2011
The Winds of Winter	TBA
A Dream of Spring	TBA

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