With no clear winner in Israel’s election, here’s what could happen next

A volunteer stands under an umbrella in the rain outside a polling station in Jerusalem on Oct. 27, 2026 Photo by Jewel Samad/AFP via Getty Images

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Israelis went to the polls in the highest turnout for decades on Tuesday, with initial exit polls showing a slight edge but no majority for the opposition, meaning the next government will be formed by whoever can cobble together a coalition.

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The country’s main pollsters projected the opposition bloc, led by ex-army chief Gadi Eisenkot, to win 52 or 53 seats, and Netanyahu’s bloc to win 50.

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Israeli Arab lists made strong gains, with exit polls showing them winning 17 or 18 seats between them.

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Here are four possible scenarios:

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1. Coalition

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The parties will immediately begin negotiations to try to reach a 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset, but the path forward is far from clear.

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President Isaac Herzog will name a candidate who has the best chance to form a government — not necessarily the party with the most seats, which the initial exit polls showed to be Netanyahu’s Likud.

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The Arab Israeli parties, particularly Raam, have voiced openness to working with Eisenkot’s bloc, but the camp has kept them at arm’s length, perceiving their support as a liability during the campaign.

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For Netanyahu’s bloc, however, there is no obvious place to pick up more seats after some smaller right-wing parties failed to meet the vote threshold for entering parliament.

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Coalition negotiations can be arduous, with parties insisting on parochial interests, and can produce unstable governments.

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Following the previous election in November 2022, it took Benjamin Netanyahu 58 days to form his government.

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2. Minority government

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If no bloc manages to secure 61 seats, a candidate could attempt to govern without a majority but rather through support on an ad hoc basis from other lawmakers.

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In this scenario, lawmakers from the Arab Israeli parties — whose community makes up 20 percent of the population and generally identifies as Palestinian — could play a critical role.

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Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, has been a kingmaker in the past, having been the first Arab party to join an Israeli government in a short-lived 2021-2022 coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

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Another Arab movement, the Joint List, has said it would be unlikely to join a coalition government outright, but has offered to provide a “safety net” for any one that ousts Netanyahu from power.

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Political commentator Tal Elovitz said especially high Arab turnout “indicates a strong desire for partnership”.

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Eisenkot has not publicly even entertained the possibility, and Netanyahu in his campaign relentlessly told Jewish voters that a vote for the opposition could bring Arabs into government.

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“Bottom line, at the moment it appears there is a possibility of forming a minority government headed by Eisenkot, but this could still shift depending on the final results,” Elovitz said.