With high gas prices and a trade war, get ready for a long stretch of low cross-border travel

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The effects are being felt in less touristy places too, including Sault Ste. Marie in both Michigan and Ontario.

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The president’s messaging as “almost unwelcoming,” said Travis Anderson, director of tourism and community development in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. He said the drop in Canadian visitors to his area’s Michigan counterpart is significant, likely in the double digits, a trend he pinned on the political climate.

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Mayor Seward, meanwhile, says border traffic from Canada to Blaine is down around 40 per cent, which she blames fully on tariffs and Trump’s rhetoric. Canadians she knows are angry.

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“They’re just like, ‘How dare you do this to us? We’ve been your best friends forever,’” she said, noting that the decline is hurting retail, tourism, restaurants, mail-order parcel businesses, and city tax revenue.

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Another concern for Canadians is safety, said Trautman.

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“What we are seeing is kind of this broader landscape of fear around these issues because there are these really heinous things happening,” she said, referring to an 85-year-old French woman being detained by ICE for 16 days.

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“‘That could be me,’ they’re saying,” said Trautman.

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Even fuel tourism, which once saw Canadians crossing over to fill up in her region, has dwindled. In 2018-19, as many as 20 per cent of cross-border travellers said gas was their main reason for crossing. In 2025, it was just two per cent.

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There’s little reason to think the Iran-crisis-fuelled uptick in gasoline costs will spark fuel tourism anytime soon because the Canadian dollar is relatively weak.

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In Washington, crossing for fuel is less worthwhile since a state gas tax was layered atop the existing carbon tax on fuel last year, shortly after Prime Minister Mark Carney dropped the federal carbon tax.

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Tourism operators elsewhere also doubt they’ll see a resurgence in fuel tourism because gas is expensive in both countries. The bigger concern is that higher gas prices will further dampen cross-border travel.

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The Leger poll mentioned earlier showed that high gas prices were a factor for 32 per cent of Canadians this year, compared to 29 per cent last year, and fuel costs have increased since the survey was conducted.

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According to an April survey from U.S. News, 65 per cent of Americans have altered their summer travel plans because of increasing costs, with 42 per cent mentioning higher fuel prices specifically.

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“Anytime that you increase the cost of travel, there’s a concern,” said Orr, in Windsor, Ontario.

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“When you’re creeping over a dollar (increase in gas), is that going to play a significant role…? I would have to say yes,” said Percy, in Niagara.

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“It’s just another reason not to travel … how many more factors can you pile on?” he added.

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So cross-border travel, especially from Canada to the U.S., is likely to continue its decline — and it’s a trend that Trautman fears will be hard to reverse.

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“The loss of trust isn’t just going to be fixed by a good trade negotiation,” said Trautman.

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“I think we’re in a long-term period of relatively low cross-border travel.”

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National Post

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