Why Toronto Raptors are amongst winners of NBA lottery reform

Toronto's future first round picks now have more value and they seem to be in a better spot overall.

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Published Jun 03, 2026  •  4 minute read

Toronto Raptors' Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes share a laugh on the bench during a game. Photo by Frank Gunn /The Canadia Press

The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs are understandably laser-focussed on their battle for the NBA title at the moment. For the other 28 teams though, this month is all about prepping for the draft.

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Really, teams spend tons of time all year thinking about the draft and the NBA’s lottery, often planning more how to lose games in the most efficient ways, rather than actually beating opponents.

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The tanking issue got so much bad press that the NBA decided to attack the problem even more aggressively than the likes of Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drive to the basket.

A number of reforms were announced late last week (the vote was 29-1, with the Memphis Grizzlies the lone dissenter). Only time will tell if the NBA overdid the changes, causing new problems, or if it was a solid step in the right direction. Here’s a look at the alterations and how they might impact the Toronto Raptors moving forward.

What changed?

The annual lottery, starting in 2027, will now include 16 teams not 14.

The “3-2-1” system is a bit confusing, but each of those 16 will get either three, two, or one lottery ball for the drawing.

The teams that don’t qualify for the play-in tournament (or, obviously, the playoffs), will receive three lottery balls each … except, the three teams finishing with the worst regular season record will be “draft relegated” and only get two balls apiece. These teams can now fall as far as 12 (the reforms that started in 2019 had limited those teams to only being able to fall four spots and all three had equal 14% odds at landing the first pick from 25% before that). Now it’s down to 5.4% each, yikes (the team’s 4-10 in the reverse standings will be at 8.1% each).

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This is to discourage some of the hijinks seen in recent years intended to free-fall such as sitting out healthy top players, signing athletes that don’t have any business competing in the NBA, never putting marquee additions on the court after trading for them (like Washington with Trae Young and Anthony Davis this year and Brandon Ingram with the Raptors last year) and so on. Five teams lost at least 80% of the time after the all-star break.

Washington lost 27-of-28 and ended up winning the lottery in a loaded draft.

The No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds in each conference will get two lottery balls each, while the losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games in each conference will receive one lottery ball each.

Balls will now be drawn for all 16 participating teams and the part aired on television will now be the same as the NHL (like how we saw live the Toronto Maple Leafs win this year’s lottery). It will be the actual drawing of the balls, rather than the NBA’s customary TV production that takes place after the actual drawing (though the results were kept secret until the broadcast).

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What else?

Now teams are barred from selecting first in consecutive drafts. This was a rarity though. Philadelphia did it in 2016 and 2017, Cleveland in 2013 and 2014, Orlando in 1992 and 1993 and Houston in 1983 and 1984 in the modern era.

More impactfully, no team will be allowed a Top-5 pick in three consecutive drafts (seemingly a direct counter to the Spurs landing Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper in a row, setting up a potential dynasty).

Memphis voted no because it valued a 2027 pick it received from Utah for Jaren Jackson Jr. last season primarily because it had a chance to be near the top. Since the Jazz picked fifth in 2025, and will go second this year, at best the Grizzlies can only receive the sixth selection in 2026. That doesn’t seem very fair (though Utah intends to take a step forward this year and get out of the bottom 10 anyway. We’ll see about that).

As well, teams will no longer be able to protect picks in trades 12-15.

ESPN also reported the lottery teams will pick in reverse order in the second round.

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This system will be tested in 2027, 2028 and 2029 and can be changed after that if it isn’t working out.

What about the Raptors?

First, Toronto is one of the few teams (about a third of the league) that currently controls (meaning owns outright or hasn’t given swap rights to another team) each of its next seven first-round draft picks.

That was already a leg up on the other 23 squads, but now first rounders should have more value thanks to the lottery reform. That’s because there’s a higher chance any given first rounder ends up being first overall or close to it. The draft is going to be more random than ever before.

Toronto can trade up to four future first at some point in order to land a superstar to pair with Scottie Barnes.

Or, say the team takes a step back in 2026-27 or 2028-29. They might suddenly have 5.4% odds at the top pick, or even 8.4% if they don’t even make the play-in in an improving Eastern Conference (don’t scoff at those odds, Dallas got Cooper Flagg last year despite 1.8% odds, Atlanta won with a 3% shot in 2024).

So whether they keep their firsts or trade some, the Raptors are suddenly in a better spot compared to the old lottery system.

An unintended consequence though is that some of the current superteams (the Spurs and Thunder chief among them, with lots of future picks owed to them), are as well.

@WolstatSun

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