A new kind of birth control: iPhones could be to blame for declining fertility, says study

Apple iPhone 16 smartphones at the Apple Inc. BKC store in Mumbai, India, on Friday, Sept. 20, 2024. Photo by Dhiraj Singh /Bloomberg

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A new research paper has suggested that iPhones could be to blame for declining fertility rates.

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The paper, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, notes that the fertility rate in the U.S. has fallen by 22 per cent since 2007, when the first iPhone went on sale in the country. The researchers say this decline can’t be explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited factors.

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Until 2011, the iPhone was only available in the U.S. to subscribers of AT&T, allowing the researchers to compare birth rates in counties with near-universal AT&T coverage to counties with little or none in the four years since the first iPhone’s release.

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Their findings suggest a striking relationship between iPhone access and declining birth rates.

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Teen births declined by 13.8 per cent in counties without AT&T coverage, compared to steeper declines of 18.9 per cent in counties with partial coverage and 26 per cent in counties with near-universal coverage.

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Births to women in their twenties fell by 10 per cent in counties without coverage, but by 14.6 per cent in counties with extensive coverage. Among women in their thirties, births rose by 3.8 per cent in counties without AT&T coverage but fell by 1.2 per cent in counties with extensive coverage.

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The researchers therefore suggest that access to the iPhone reduced births among women under 30 and suppressed the rise in births among older women.

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After taking into account other forces that may have caused fertility rates in urban areas to decline more than those in rural areas, the researchers imply that iPhone access reduced births by 4.5 to eight per cent among those aged 15 to 19, and by 3.2 to 6.6 per cent among those aged 20 to 24.

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The researchers concluded: “The diffusion of the iPhone explains 33–52 per cent of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15–44.”

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As for why exactly this is, the researchers present three candidates. iPhone use reduces in-person interactions, provides more access to information about contraception and abortion, and provides more access to pornography.

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Essentially, the smartphone is an unofficial form of contraceptive.

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The theory is bolstered by results from previous studies, one of which, published in the American Economic Review, found that a four-week Facebook deactivation increases offline socializing with family and friends.