How a scandal-plagued Senate bid could reshape a key Canada trade state

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Still, Collins has managed to win in the past by currying favour despite the state’s Democratic lean.

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“[She] is really the only Republican in the Senate who sits in a state that tends to vote for Democrats at the presidential level but still reelects her,” said Erin Covey, Taylor’s colleague and the editor in charge of The Cook Political Report’s coverage of the U.S. House of Representatives.

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“That’s because she has managed to separate herself from the national party, and she is one of the few Republicans who will criticize Trump or will vote against his policies from time to time.”

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However, this year could be different, they both agreed.

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“Even though [Collins] has built up a lot of goodwill with Democrats and independents in Maine over the years,” said Covey, “I do think that over time frustration has grown, because even as she occasionally does break with Trump or criticize him, people feel like she hasn’t done that enough.”

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Taylor agreed, pinpointing that the race is likely to come down to one thing: anti-Trump sentiment.

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“Donald Trump is the biggest complicating factor for Susan Collins’ reelection,” she said.

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“If you want to voice your displeasure with Trump, the only way you have to do that is to vote against Susan Collins.”

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A small survey of 100 people conducted by Trump-aligned pollsters Tony Fabrizio, David Lee, and Travis Tunis late last week found Platner and Collins tied at 46 per cent. Platner’s unfavourability rating, however, had plunged from 29 per cent in January to 49 per cent now, and the poll pointed out that “the recent revelation about Platner can further erode his support.”

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A May poll by the Pan Atlantic Research Survey — taken before the latest scandal broke — put the oyster farmer ahead of Collins, 48 per cent to 41 per cent, while 11 per cent were undecided.

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Taylor thinks Platner could overcome the controversy.

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“Even with the baggage …,” she said, “there’s still a very good chance that he could still win this race.”

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Collins, Taylor said, is in “the most vulnerable position she’s ever been,” making the race a true toss-up.

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But what could it mean for Maine-Canada relations if the Pine Tree State loses Collins? That is less clear.

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While Platner has been campaigning on pocketbook issues, he has said little about trade with Canada, and there is no guarantee that a Democratic win in Maine — and even control of the Senate — would lead to more pro-Canada trading policies.

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Progressives like Bernie Sanders, for example, support tariffs as a trade tool, even if they oppose Trump’s chaotic approach to using them.

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“If the midterms come and Democrats come in, I don’t see that necessarily being good for [Canada],” said Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

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“[Platner] is an AOC guy, and I could see him and the other progressives that are coming in and joining Bernie Sanders and AOC who have said tariffs are fine.”

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“So thinking that the midterms are going to elect people who are gonna say, ‘Yes, on day one, I’m going to fix the relationship with Canada,’” is misguided, Dade explained.

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“These aren’t bad people. They’re not going to be malicious, but they can’t be our friends,” he said.

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National Post

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