There are major implications for Canada in upcoming Michigan and Wisconsin primaries

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“Voters in Macomb County laid a lot of blame at the feet of that legislation as reasons why jobs were being lost,” he said. “So it can be a very trade-focused electorate.”

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Whether the majority favour tariffs today is an open question.

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“It really depends on who you’re talking to,” said Dulio, noting that “we’re in such a polarized, tribal era of American politics.”

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But GOP candidates are being quiet about the impacts of trade and CUSMA.

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“Republicans who used to rail against ‘bad trade deals’ are often silent about tariffs today, because they don’t want to anger the president,” Dulio said.

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Covey thinks tariffs are probably favoured in this district, but she noted that everyone is feeling the pinch of rising prices.

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“The cost of living has increased everywhere, including in this district, and this is a pretty working-class district where people are going to feel that more than in other parts of the country,” she said.

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“If Democrats are able to make the case that part of that is due to the tariffs, then that could certainly hurt Republicans.”

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Wisconsin, meanwhile, has a more limited battlefield; Covey points to the state’s first and third districts. The first has incumbent Republican Bryan Steil facing off with José Vera and Connor Walleck, and several Democrats are vying for their party’s nomination.

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But it’s a done deal, according to PBS Wisconsin political reporter Zachary Schultz.

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“It’s one of those mirage districts where it looks appealing from a certain distance because the numbers within the district make it seem like it should be closer than it is.”

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Democrats have tried and failed.

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“They’ve never had enough support from national Democrats to put the district in play,” Schultz said.

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Also, Steil is tough to beat.

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“(He) is too good of a fundraiser and too good of a politician that he hasn’t made it close,” Schultz added, noting that it would require a major Democratic wave to put Steil in real jeopardy.

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Republicans in both Michigan and Wisconsin are firmly Trump-aligned, so there aren’t any big loyalty tests playing out in primaries.

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But there is a flippable seat in Wisconsin’s Third district, experts say. Republican Derrick Van Orden, the incumbent, is unchallenged for his primary, but he will face the winner of the Democratic ticket being sought by Rebecca Cooke and Emily Berge.

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“That is the most flippable of any seats in Wisconsin that are likely to flip,” said Schultz, adding that it “could be the determining factor of who controls Congress.”

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The result, especially if it clinches a Democratic majority in the House, could have a real impact on trade policies.

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“There are a lot of Democrats in Wisconsin that would like to see a lot of those tariffs disappear,” said Schultz, “especially with Canada, as a very traditional trading partner and right across the border.”

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National Post

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