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“I’m going to draw on an insight from the Finnish president, my friend Alexander Stubb, who observed that people consistently — myself included — do three things: over-rationalize the past, over-dramatize the present and underestimate the future.”
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This is what Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told a room full of attendees at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday.
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In a statement, the Prime Minister’s Office said that Carney “outlined Canada’s economic strategy of building strength at home and diversifying partnerships abroad, including a new economic and security partnership with the United States.”
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What the statement didn’t include was Carney’s implied admission that he had made a mistake by trying to cut Canada off from its largest trading partner — and that he had told the room Canada would now “help make America great again.”
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Of course, there was no actual admission of fault. That’s not Carney’s style. But it was heavily implied.
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While Carney admitted he was someone who over-rationalizes the past, over-dramatizes the present and underestimates the future, he didn’t directly link these behaviours to the antagonistic relationship he chose to pursue with the United States in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
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Instead, he spoke vaguely about past failures over Brexit and the 2008 financial crisis.
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Carney told the room that when he looks “back at the right path out of the global financial crisis and the right response to Brexit,” both “now look very clear, in hindsight.”
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He explained that when he and other economists were at the table at the time, there were “relatively few who identified those paths,” and even “fewer still who had the courage of their convictions to walk them. Because in a crisis, the fog and fear are real.”
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It sounded to me like Carney may have been softly conceding that during moments of great uncertainty — like the Brexit referendum — the establishment (including himself) often gets the politics and the long-term consequences wrong.
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As governor of the Bank of England during the Brexit vote, Carney publicly weighed in against the leave vote, suggesting it was the “biggest domestic risk to financial stability,” and could possibly cause a recession.
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Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg referred to Carney as “the high priest of project fear” and suggested that his “reputation for inaccurate and politically motivated forecasting has damaged the reputation of the Bank of England.”
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Lord Lamont, a Vote Leave spokesperson, also criticized Carney, saying: “The governor should be careful that he doesn’t cause a crisis. If his unwise words become self-fulfilling, the responsibility will be the governor’s and the governor’s alone. A prudent governor would simply have said that ‘we are prepared for all eventualities.’ ”
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