‘Michael’ Box Office Prediction: Does Its Bad Rotten Tomatoes Score Affect Its Earnings?

The much-awaited Michael Jackson biopic, Michael, opened to disastrous RT scores. Critics weren’t impressed with the film after its premiere, earning it a Rotten Tomato score of 31% from 74 reviews (as of writing on April 21, 2026). Fans will have to wait a few more days to give their verdict on the movie; however, the critical reviews are still a factor in determining the box office of the movie.

Earlier, predictions stated that the movie would open to a record $80-90 million opening after the positive reactions to the trailer from all over (via Box Office Pro). Antoine Fuqua’s film apparently hasn’t lived up to the expectations set by its trailer. The teaser of the movie, released in November 2025, went on to fetch 116.2 million views in 24 hours. It was the most viewed trailer for any music biopic.

Michael	Details
Director	Antoine Fuqua
Release Date	April 24, 2026
Cast	Jaafar Jackson, Nia Long, Laura Harrier, Juliano Krue Valdi, Miles Teller, and Colman Domingo
Production	Lionsgate
RT Score (as of April 21, 2026)	31%

That being said, we have had films that failed to impress the critics but still performed exceptionally well at the box office. The makers of the movie and fans of Jackson expect such a miracle at the box office after its critical reception. Michael is produced by Graham King and Jackson’s estate co-executors, John Branca and John McClain. Lionsgate is producing the movie and distributing it in the U.S.

The film follows the legend’s life, from his time with the Jackson 5 through to his early solo career in the late 1980s. The cast includes Jaafar Jackson, Nia Long, Laura Harrier, Juliano Krue Valdi, Miles Teller, and Colman Domingo. After watching the trailer, here are the five things that the movie will probably get right about Michael Jackson.

Michael‘s Box Office Predictions Explained

While Michael‘s expensive delay in production and reshoots were cause for major concerns, the trailer gave fans the impression that it was going to be a great theatrical experience. The initial predictions were more conservative, claiming that the film would earn north of $55 million in the domestic market (via Deadline).

However, once the trailer confirmed the inclusion of some of Jackson’s iconic performances, the expectations soared. The glimpses of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo’s performances in the trailer also drew more eyes to the film. The result was a jump in the predicted box office numbers from $55 million to $80-90 million in the domestic market.

If it ever manages to hit those numbers, it will set a record at the box office. The highest opening number for a musical biopic is currently held by Straight Outta Compton, the biopic about the hip-hop group N.W.A. The movie opened with $60.2 million. In second place, Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody collected $51.5 million in its opening week.

Interestingly, the final numbers of the latter, $910.8 million (as of April 21, 2026), remain the highest-grossing box office for a musical biopic. Jackson’s box office had the potential to beat those numbers as well. However, the latest critical scores put a major dent in such dreams for Michael.

What Did Critics Say About Michael?

The reviews of Michael were shocking. The BBC called it a “bland and barely competent daytime TV movie.” The Guardian again used the word “bland” to describe the movie, in addition to calling it outright “bad”. IGN complained that the movie made the King of Pop “boring.” Variety‘s review was more positive than the others, as it said that the movie was “a surprisingly effective middle-of-the-road biopic.”

These aren’t the things fans were expecting to hear out of the movie. The trailer didn’t give off a boring vibe at all. It suggested that the movie leaned heavily into many of Jackson’s performance elements, including choreography, vocal moments, and grand stages. The trailer promised hits like Don’t Stop ‘Til You Get Enough, Beat It, and Thriller. However, it appears that none of these elements worked in favor of the movie.

Fans might still hold on to hopes that the movie isn’t going to be as bad as the reviewers say. However, some could see why the movie did not live up to the expectations. The Smooth Criminal singer was a complicated man who lived through a struggling life, making it difficult to accurately portray him. A new actor like Jaafar Jackson would have found it even more challenging to pull off such an acting range.

Do you think the RT scores will affect your expectations for Michael? Let us know in the comments below!

Michael is scheduled to be released in the U.S. theaters on April 24, 2026.