Kelly Greene's break from NDP cabinet solidarity a potential problem for David Eby, experts say

Kelly Greene, B.C. management and climate readiness minister. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /10112202A

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Premier David Eby took the unusual step last week of allowing Climate Readiness Minister Kelly Greene to break with the government and oppose the expansion of the Tilbury LNG facility in Delta, a project that Energy Minister Adrian Dix was touting as recently as Friday.

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“Kelly Greene is an amazing MLA. She’s a huge champion for her community,” said Eby on Tuesday. “This is an issue of crucial importance for her community. It is a sign, I believe, of her continued commitment to the community that she continues to advocate on this, and there is space in our cabinet and in our caucus for disagreement.”

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Some experts say Greene’s comments, in which she said she was “disappointed” in FortisBC’s decision to move forward with a build-out of Tilbury, and voiced concerns over project safety, is a break with cabinet solidarity without much precedent in B.C. political history as it didn’t include her resignation.

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David Black, a political communications professor at Royal Roads, drew parallels to the resignation of federal minister Steven Guilbeault, who first resigned his cabinet post and will soon resign his seat in Parliament over disagreements with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s backtrack on climate policy.

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He said that, in contrast to Guilbeault, Greene’s break with cabinet appears to have been accepted because of the local circumstances of the issue and also the tension that exists within the NDP base over natural resource projects, such as LNG and the new pipeline being proposed from Alberta to B.C.’s South Coast.

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“I see this not just in being gracious to a cabinet minister who is one of the climate change ministers, and is dealing with the LNG project being expanded in her Richmond riding,” said Black. “I think what Eby is struggling to do, and it’s not easy here, is to reconcile the fact that public opinion is on the side of resource development, on the side of pipelines, even that represents something of a change in the direction of public opinion in B.C., and yet his party is one that has well-earned, very sincere, environmental credentials.”

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He said that if Eby doesn’t manage the tensions between the members of his party who support resource development and those who are more environmentally focused, it could spell the end of his premiership.

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Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said polling shows Eby’s approval rating fell to 27 per cent in July from 31 per cent in June, with his approval among NDP voters falling by 25 points in one month alone. She positions this as fallout from Eby’s perceived acquiescence of the new pipeline from Alberta.

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“People who are pro-pipeline tend to also be more likely to say that they would vote B.C. Conservative, and therefore, again, no props to Eby for doing the thing,” said Kurl.

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“People who are against more non-renewable resource development, whether it’s pipelines or indeed LNG, there has been a softening or a souring among that green element of NDP voters who are unhappy with what they’re seeing.”

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Mike McKinnon, the Western Canada director for Enterprise Canada and deputy communications director to former NDP premier John Horgan, said he doesn’t believe Greene’s statement is problematic for the NDP even if it’s a rather unique situation. He said that it doesn’t appear to be a case of breaking ranks by Greene, so much as maintaining a position she has held for a long time.