GOLDSTEIN: Poll suggests ‘elbows up’ crowd doesn’t realize the consequences of a long trade war

It’s easy to talk tough about fighting a trade war when you and/or your own family haven’t become its casualties

Published Sep 09, 2026  •  Last updated 13 minutes ago  •  3 minute read

Prime Minister Mark Carney. Photo by John Mahoney /Postmedia Network

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A new poll from Build Canada suggests Canadians in the “elbows up” category when it comes to the ongoing trade war with the United States have put their brains on park.

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It found that while 75% of Canadians surveyed want Prime Minister Mark Carney to hold firm in the ongoing trade dispute with U.S. President Donald Trump, most simultaneously reject higher taxes, higher household unemployment and higher financial losses in retirement as potential consequences of that strategy.

The poll of 1,696 Canadian residents from August 31 to September 4 by the non-partisan think tank, first reported by the National Post, suggests many Canadians, if one can state the painfully obvious without being accused of treason by Canada’s chattering classes, don’t understand what a trade war is and what it does.

Perhaps even many among our chattering classes don’t understand it as the simple, factual relay of the poll’s findings, read like a comedy skit.

For example, while 75% favour holding firm without making concessions to the U.S., 68% reported any increased risk of job loss in their own household was unacceptable.

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Similarly, higher taxes as a result of a prolonged trade war were deemed unacceptable by margins of 56% to 60%.

Higher financial losses in retirement as the result of fighting a prolonged trade war were described as unacceptable by margins of 58% to 68%, depending on the group of Canadians surveyed.

Given that Canadian tariffs and counter-tariffs imposed on U.S. products are taxes paid to the Canadian government by Canadians, 56% opposed them at a level of $500 annually and 59% to 60% at levels of $1,000 to $2,500.

A 5% loss in retirement income was deemed unacceptable by 58% of those surveyed, a 10% loss by 62% and a 20% loss by 68%.

Older Canadians are more inclined to accept higher financial losses over a long period of time in a trade war, with 56% of those 75 years of age and over saying they would be willing to sustain them for as long as it takes to resolve the issue, while only 21% of young people aged 18 to 24 said the same.

There is a significant difference in partisan support for holding firm in the ongoing trade war, as opposed to accepting concessions to make at a deal, with 96% of Liberal, BQ and NDP voters in support of holding firm, while only 41% of Conservative voters advocated the same.

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The most common ways Canadians surveyed said they have changed their purchasing habits because of the trade war are by buying Canadian products even if the prices are higher (69%), cancelling or avoiding travel to the U.S. (57%), and stopping the purchase of specific U.S. name brands (55%).

The poll’s findings suggest, as Build Canada reported, that while Canadians support the “elbows up” approach of Carney and the Liberals to date, it is not a blank cheque and that views could change if the negative economic impacts of a prolonged trade war reach the point where Canadians consider them to be unacceptable.

It suggests, yet again, that responses to opinion polls are determined by the questions that are asked.

Finally, it suggests that while most Canadians support standing firm in the face of the ongoing trade war with the U.S., many are naive about what a prolonged trade war with the U.S. would mean in terms of financial and job losses in Canada, both of which many Canadians are already experiencing.

In other words, it’s easy to talk tough about fighting a trade war when you and/or your own family haven’t become its casualties — at least not so far.

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