Several B.C. Conservative MLAs wait to see what happens with Kerry-Lynne Findlay as byelection looms

Election sign for Conservative Party candidate Kerry-Lynne Findlay. For the last couple weeks, several MLAs watched as their colleagues defected from the Conservative Party one after another, like a slow-motion car wreck. But they've decided, for better or worse, to stick with their leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay. Photo by Jason Payne /PNG

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For the last couple weeks, several MLAs watched as their colleagues defected from the Conservative Party one after another, like a slow-motion car wreck.

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But they’ve decided, for better or worse, to stick with their leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay.

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In an interview with Postmedia, one MLA said the caucus needs to rally behind Findlay in order to put British Columbians first and work to elect a Conservative government. Another MLA was more critical of Findlay, but decided to back her because she deserves a chance to prove herself.

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Both agreed that the upcoming vote in Abbotsford-Mission will be critical and that Findlay needs to win the byelection by a significant margin after a month in which nine MLAs left caucus, with five of them forming their own party.

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Postmedia granted both MLAs anonymity so they could speak freely.

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The MLA who is waiting to see what happens thinks Findlay has had a good first three months and wants to give her a chance.

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“I think you’ve got give people the opportunity to do so, partly because that’s the right thing to do, and partly because I think that there are people that are tempted to undermine her or try to take her out. If you do that, you’re alienating a huge portion of the base,” said the MLA.

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The MLA said that Findlay needs to match or beat the 55 per cent of the vote received in the 2024 election by former MLA Reann Gasper, now Findlay’s chief of staff. Otherwise, they said the party could continue to fracture.

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“If she wins a commanding victory, then she is well justified in saying, ‘Hey, listen, all of the qualms that people have are not justified,'” they said.

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“If she gets less than 55 per cent of the vote, even if it’s 50 per cent or 48 per cent, even if she wins, then you know that signals that the tide water is down. If she does not meet or exceed Reann Gasper’s vote share, then I think that puts her into a difficult position, where I’d say the current fracturing probably continues.”

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The MLA foresees four possible scenarios following the byelection, with the first being that Findlay wins and gets a firm grip on the party. The second is that she wins but by a smaller margin and more MLAs leave caucus.

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Scenarios three and four will occur if she loses the byelection, after which she either steps down as leader, or digs in and tries to keep control of a shrinking party.

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Political analyst Stewart Prest said there is no question the byelection is a make-or-break moment and that a loss would necessitate her leaving her position. Photo by Francis Georgian /PNG

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The MLA that is more supportive of Findlay said that a defeat, or even a narrow victory, would call into question whether the party can compete in battleground ridings in places such as Surrey.

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“You’ve got to be a realist. If you can’t win in Abbotsford-Mission, how are you going to win in Surrey? How are you going to win a couple ridings in Richmond and other areas? It’ll be tough,” said the MLA.

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Where the more supportive MLA differed from the caucus colleague is in their frustration with more liberal members who jumped ship shortly after Findlay became leader.

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They said that Conservative members were fine to take a back seat while Surrey-White Rock MLA Trevor Halford was interim leader and helped prove the party has the potential to be a government in waiting.