Donna Kennedy-Glans: A technical recession? That’s like saying you’re half-pregnant

Photo by JASPER JACOBS /Getty Image

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When you find out you’re pregnant, the test is clear: positive or negative. Canada’s recession debate isn’t so binary.

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Some economists point to two straight quarters of negative GDP growth and declare a “technical recession.” Others, like the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council, demand something more pronounced, persistent and pervasive. Half-pregnant or fully in labour, the alarm is ringing. Wake up, Canada — we’re slipping.

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This mild contraction — Q4 2025 and a razor-thin Q1 2026 dip — lands like a wet blanket after years of warnings. Blame games are easy: it was COVID lockdowns in 2020; greed in 2008-09; oil prices tanking in 2015. Today, fingers point at Trump tariffs and trade whiplash.

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Fair enough on the external squeeze. But external shocks expose internal weaknesses.

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Pierre Poilievre wants an emergency debate on solutions. The Liberals seem content to filibuster reality. Meanwhile, the usual chorus — Avi Lewis types branding Mark Carney a fossil-fuel traitor, or Steven Guilbeault ghosts plotting their next “build nothing” sequel — offers theatre, not therapy.

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Enough kvetching. Let’s name the useful problems and fix them with urgency.

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Uncertainty is investment kryptonite. Investors aren’t fleeing because they hate maple syrup. They’re dodging confusion.

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In British Columbia, property rights chaos has would-be miners and developers hitting pause or packing up. Fix it. Courts and governments have authority — use it. Clarify title and consultation rules that respect both Indigenous rights and economic reality. No more endless dithering dressed up as reconciliation.

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In Alberta, a separatist hum grows louder every time Ottawa slow-walks an export pipeline to tidewater. Premier Danielle Smith says she trusts Carney. Trust is nice, but results speak louder. Approve pipelines with speed. One decisive west-coast oil outlet would quiet the naysayers, fill federal coffers, and remind every province what Confederation actually delivers. In a recession, political games are a luxury we cannot afford.

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Nova Scotia’s Tim Houston just did the unthinkable: he lifted a decade-old fracking moratorium and uranium mining ban. He’s courting investment while his neighbours import the very energy they refuse to produce at home. New Brunswick and Quebec — how long will you cling to these dual standards? Hypocrisy isn’t a growth strategy. Open the door — safely, responsibly — but open it.

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Talent is leaking out faster than we admit. Canada has record emigration — over 65,000 net in recent tallies, heavily skewed to the young, educated, and ambitious. I’ve sat across from bright 20- and 30-somethings weighing offers south of the border and bitten my tongue. Why tie them to a country that regulates creativity, taxes ambition, and celebrates caution? CRTC busybodies, endless permitting mazes, bureaucratic “maybe later” culture — talent and capital flow to places that say “yes.”