Democrats flirt with becoming the anti-tariff party amid Trump’s trade war

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“There does seem to be a link to affordability and tariffs that is becoming a dominant thread in voter perception right now,” said Inu Manak, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).

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Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, a trade policy analyst at the Cato Institute, agrees.

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“It’s become a very timely political opportunity to push back against the tariffs,” he said, adding that “voters, in their minds, have made the link between tariffs and higher prices.”

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But Democrats are also trying to distinguish between good and bad tariffs, a line that could be hard to articulate.

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“As the Biden interlude showed, many Democrats remain warmly disposed towards tariffs,” said Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the PIIE, referring to Biden’s decision to retain Trump’s first-term tariffs on Chinese goods and most of his Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum.

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“Now in opposition, Democrats need to fashion a policy line that distinguishes ‘good tariffs’ from ‘bad tariffs’. On the ‘bad’ side of the line are tariffs that plainly raise consumer prices but don’t protect many firms or workers. On the ‘good’ side are tariffs championed by important constituencies, such as steel and lumber firms.”

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“In my view, this line is flimsy and will not survive the 2026 and 2028 election cycles,” Hufbauer added.

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But if Democrats do win both the House and the Senate, expect more action on bills like Schumer’s that challenge some tariffs.

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“It’s probable that we’ll see Democrats going against sort of the most far-reaching tariffs,” said Obregon. “But I don’t necessarily think that this is quite yet a turning point where Democrats become the anti-tariff party.”

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Obregon said that could mean eliminating the Section 301 forced-labour tariffs and the Section 338 duties imposed on Canada, while retaining Section 232 tariffs and China-specific Section 301 tariffs.

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That broadly tracks Hufbauer’s distinction between tariffs that raise consumer prices and those backed by powerful domestic constituencies.

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“I don’t see Democrats returning to their free trade playbook which lasted from the Civil War until President Carter,” said Hufbauer.

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Manak explained the electoral complexity involved and why Democrats are unlikely to embrace free trade anytime soon.

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“They can’t just one day wake up and decide they’re free traders. That’s just not how it happens,” she said, noting how such a shift would depend on the party’s electoral coalition — namely the relative influence of unions, manufacturing interests, and a future Democratic presidential candidate.

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“If you have a traditional Dem candidate that is really focused on bringing that union coalition on board, then you’re not going to see much change in a lot of these sectoral tariffs in particular,” she said.

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Even Hale, who’s been surprised by the shift in messaging from the left, remains unsure whether Democrats are truly flipping the script on tariffs or free trade.

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“I think it’s too early to tell,” he said.

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Rather than becoming anti-tariff, Manak concluded, Democrats are really “anti-Trump.”

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“Democrats are not anti-tariff,” she said. “They’re just anti some tariffs.”

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National Post

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