U.S.-Iran deal a ‘catastrophe’ for Israel, analysts say

An Israeli left-wing activist in costume with a mask depicting US President Donald Trump holds a baby puppet depicting Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a demonstration against the government and the war in the Middle East. Photo by Jack GUEZ /AFP/File

Article content

The U.S.-Iran agreement to conclude the Middle East war is a significant strategic setback for Israel and underscores its waning influence in Washington, Israeli analysts said.

Article content

Although the accord, announced by Pakistan early Monday, remains incomplete and is expected to be finalized within 60 days, its preliminary framework has already raised concern in Israel.

Article content

Article content

Article content

Analysts argue it effectively locks in Iranian gains while deferring the most sensitive issue for Israel: its security.

Article content

Article content

According to former intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz, this means the U.S.-Iran deal amounts to nothing less than a “political and security catastrophe for the State of Israel”.

Article content

It is also a blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who once hoped to sail into October elections as the victor in campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah and Tehran — but instead is under fire for failing to attain Israel’s key war aims.

Article content

“We knew for quite a long time that it was going to be an agreement that will take into account most of the interests of the Iranians,” said Sima Shine, an analyst with Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).

Article content

“The issues that are important to Israel, such as the nuclear one, are left for some future that we don’t know,” said Shine, also a former Israeli intelligence officer.

Article content

The U.S. and Israel launched a joint campaign against Iran on February 28, with Netanyahu hoping to topple the Islamic Republic and dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, seen by him as “existential threats”.

Article content

Article content

Beyond leaving the nuclear question unresolved, Citrinowicz said the result of the conflict makes it unlikely that any future U.S. president would risk renewed military action against Iran.

Article content

Article content

This, analysts say, effectively allows Tehran to emerge stronger after more than three months of conflict.

Article content

“At the end of the day, Iran is becoming stronger, and Israel has no ability to influence the U.S. president’s decisions,” Citrinowicz argued.

Article content

‘Mr Iran’

Article content

U.S. President Donald Trump excoriated Netanyahu for launching attacks in Lebanon that threatened to derail the final agreement just hours before it was announced.

Article content

“He’s a very difficult guy,” Trump said of Netanyahu, “and to be honest with you, he should be very thankful to us for doing this. Because if Iran had a nuclear weapon, Israel wouldn’t be around for two hours.”

Article content

Netanyahu has yet to publicly respond to the deal, but his coalition ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, has already dismissed it, saying Israel is “not bound” by the agreement.

Article content

“It’s a very, very, very bad development for Israel, and for Netanyahu specifically, who was, you know, Mr. Iran,” said Citrinowicz, referring to Netanyahu’s long history of antagonism with the Islamic Republic.