Tasha Kheiriddin: Quebec election was bad news for Carney, good for Poilievre

Quebec Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime makes a speech at an election watch party in Lévis, Que., on Monday. Photo by Pascal Ratthé/Montreal Gazette

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The 2026 Quebec election has completely transformed the province’s political landscape. The Coalition Avenir Québec, in power since 2018, was demolished, going from 90 seats in 2022 to zero. The separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) took its place in government, rising from the ashes of three seats to 59, just five shy of a majority. The formerly moribund Liberal party delivered a respectable showing with 40 seats to claim official Opposition status. The socialist Québec solidaire (QS) garnered the lowest percentage of the vote at 12 per cent and dropped from 11 seats to nine, losing party status altogether, but could hold the balance of power as the only other separatist party in the national assembly.

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But the biggest story of the night belongs to the Quebec Conservatives. In a province supposedly wedded to big government and social democracy, Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime’s party won 19 seats, up from none in 2022, and more than 20 per cent of the popular vote. His platform of lower taxes, smaller government, direct supports for families, private-sector involvement in health care, energy development and Quebec nationalism created something the province has not seen in decades: a substantial political force explicitly on the right.

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Duhaime, a former radio host who ran twice in two different ridings before being elected in Bellechasse, was triumphant. “This evening is only the beginning,” he told his jubilant supporters. “We’re writing a page of history.”

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But Duhaime also achieved something greater than gaining seats: he pushed the PQ to the right. For decades, the party remained rooted in Quebec’s social-democratic, labour-friendly nationalist tradition. But under its millennial leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who took the reins in 2020, it has openly acknowledged the limits of the state. During the campaign, PSPP, as he is known, promised cuts to provincial sales taxes, a $6.6-billion reduction in government spending over five years, less bureaucracy in health care and serious cuts to immigration. Former premier René Lévesque is likely rolling in his grave.

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That leaves the Palestinian-Québécois co-spokesperson for QS, Ruba Ghazal, as the standard-bearer of the left — a mantle she proudly assumed on election night, when she declared that her party had successfully resisted a “right-wing wind.” But it also leaves PSPP on the horns of a dilemma. Parliamentary math would suggest that his natural partner is Ghazal’s party. Both support Quebec independence, and QS’s nine seats would give the PQ the votes it needs to survive confidence motions.

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Ideologically, however, PSPP is closer to Duhaime on major issues: immigration, nationalism, finances, provincial autonomy — and pushing back against Ottawa. The Conservatives oppose separation, but Duhaime’s autonomist nationalism could make him a useful ally to extract more powers from Ottawa. And Duhaime might relish playing that card as long as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals are in power.

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For the moment, this situation may be manageable for Plamondon. He promised not to hold a referendum while U.S. President Donald Trump remains in office, arguing that the economic and political uncertainty makes this the wrong moment to pursue independence. Instead, he wants to create winning conditions, whereby an eventual vote would succeed — a tall order, considering that support for separation currently sits at roughly 30 per cent.