André Pratte: Quebec’s separatists are spoiling for a fight with Carney

Leader of the Parti Quebecois (PQ) Paul St-Pierre Plamondon makes a speech after winning his election to become the next premier of Quebec, in Montreal on Oct. 5, 2026. Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV /AFP via Getty Images

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On Monday, Quebecers elected a relatively weak, minority separatist government. The Parti Québécois won 59 of the 127-seat National Assembly, securing only 28 per cent of the vote. How should the rest of Canada, the federal government in particular, respond to this unwelcome development? There is no reason for panic. Nor should Ottawa harbour any illusions: Premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will do all he can to be able to hold — and win — a referendum on separation in 2029 or 2030, as he has promised repeatedly.

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As in the trade war with the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney should adopt a strategy that is thoughtful yet nimble, open yet firm. On Monday night, the Prime Minister congratulated the premier-designate and said: “Building a stronger Quebec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada.” What Carney calls “cooperative federalism ” must indeed be a large part of Ottawa’s approach. But that will not be enough. Whatever it may say to reassure Quebecers, who have little appetite for “la chicane” (squabbling), the Parti Québécois has no interest in cooperation; its goal is to break up the country. The party is convinced that federalism cannot work to Quebec’s advantage, and it will work hard to prove it.

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The Péquistes are excellent strategists and communicators. Since their victory on Monday evening, they have been pointing out that 40 per cent of Quebecers, not 28 per cent, voted for separatist parties, adding their own share of the vote to that of the small leftist group Québec Solidaire (nine seats). PSPP, as the PQ leader is widely known, said that his referendum pledge will be made possible “with the help of other indépendantistes from other parties”.

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Convinced that picking fights with Ottawa is the best way to stoke the nationalist sentiment in the province, the PQ will challenge the federal government at every turn, from trade policy to immigration and everything in between, even the monarchy. The battle will be won or lost not in closed-door negotiations but in the court of public opinion. Waging it will require a deep understanding of Quebecers’ state of mind, a rigorous policy strategy and an agile communications campaign.

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Mark Carney is very popular in Quebec, but there is no guarantee that his support will long withstand the separatist government’s constant attacks. The prime minister can count on strong ministers from Quebec, such as Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, and both his chief of staff, Marc-André Blanchard and the Clerk of the Privy council, Michael Sabia, know the province extremely well. But all of them have other, important, files to deal with. What Ottawa needs is a team of officials and MPs whose main task is to track Quebec’s fast-moving political landscape and respond intelligently and quickly.