Quebec referendum is unlikely under PQ minority government, say political watchers

Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon gives a victory speech following his win in the provincial election in Montreal on Monday, Oct. 5, 2026. Photo by Evan Buhler/Montreal Gazette/Postmedia

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Winning a minority government with just 28 per cent of the vote puts the Parti Québécois in uncharted territory.

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“It’s exceptional; we’ve never seen that in Quebec, certainly, that a party can win enough seats to form government with such low numbers,” said Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at McGill University.

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“It’s a relatively strong minority government, in a sense. But we know that minority governments have a lower life expectancy.”

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Monday’s outcome means the separatist PQ likely won’t be pushing for a referendum on leaving Canada any time soon, say political watchers.

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The party won 59 of the National Assembly’s 127 seats and will need support from some members of the three opposition parties to reach 64 votes and get legislation passed.

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The PQ held just seven seats when the writ dropped.

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Premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, or PSPP as he is known, has said he will wait to hold a referendum on Quebec independence until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the White House in January 2029.

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“Considering the average life expectancy of a minority government in Quebec, or even in Canada in general, it’s not sure (the PQ will still be in office when Trump makes his exit),” Béland said. “And that’s an issue that will be front of mind” for the governing party.

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“The minority government renders a referendum on independence much less likely,” said André Lecours, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa.

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Sébastien Dallaire, chief insights officer with Leger Marketing, agreed that we’re unlikely to “see a push for a referendum, especially not in the near future.”

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Would it be possible “to create the winning conditions in the current context?” Dallaire said. “Right now, it looks unlikely.”

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It wouldn’t be “impossible,” for the PQ to “pull the trigger on a referendum with the support of the Québec Solidaire,” Béland said.

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“But Québec Solidaire and the PQ, although they both support the independence of Quebec, they don’t see the process leading to independence in the same way.”

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Dallaire pointed out that about half of those who voted for Québec Solidaire “are not in favour of sovereignty.”

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It would “likely be very hard for Québec Solidaire to convince their voters and their base that now is the time to go into a referendum period,” Dallaire said.

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“It would be very tricky for Québec Solidaire to form a formal alliance with the PQ to push for a referendum.”

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Québec Solidaire won nine seats Monday, compared to 11 in the last election.

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“Québec Solidaire is a left-wing party, they’re pro-immigration, they are critical” of Quebec’s Bill 21, Béland said, while the PQ wants to “double down” on the provincial law enforcing state secularism that prohibits some public-sector workers from wearing religious symbols at work.