Marc-Olivier Fortin: The Parti Québécois will be pulled left and right. Can it survive?

Leader of the Parti Quebecois (PQ) Paul St-Pierre Plamondon makes a speech after winning his election to become the next premier of Quebec, in Montreal, on Oct. 5, 2026. Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV /AFP via Getty Images

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Physicists have long struggled to predict the movement of three objects exerting gravitational force on one another. It is popularly known as the three-body problem. Monday night, Quebec may have created its own three-party problem.

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While the Parti Québécois was able to form government, it fell just five seats short of a majority. For reasons yet to be determined, the PQ electorate did not come out at full force. While polling averages had them at 29 per cent with a big lead among francophone voters, the party underperformed and could barely reach 28 per cent in support. It was held to a minority.

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The Quebec Liberal Party won 40 seats up from 21 in 2022 and was able to regain ground in historically liberal strongholds of the province including a foothold in Quebec City. The incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec was wiped off the map with zero seats. But those two parties are not the story of the night.

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Quebec Solidaire and the Conservatives are. And being in a minority, the leader of the PQ, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, will have to work with one of the two.
QS survived the doom and gloom scenarios and lost only three seats, electing nine MNAs, resisting the PQ assault in eastern Montreal. QS is a left-wing party that is also separatist, making it a natural ally to the PQ. However, they are much further to the left of the PQ, advocating for rent control, public grocery stores and higher taxes. They also take a much more pro-immigration position than the PQ, causing a lot of friction between the two parties.

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Quebec Solidaire was able to elect candidates only in core urban ridings, winning 12 per cent of the vote province wide. Their platform makes it difficult for them in other parts of the province. PSPP has spent the last four years broadening his coalition beyond sovereigntists which, was traditionally seen as left of centre. While working with QS to hold a referendum might be a temptation for the PQ, the election results would advise otherwise.

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In complete contrast to QS, the Conservatives caused the big surprise of the night. Many doubted that the party had the organizational strength to translate its strong polling numbers into seats. They won 19, the first Conservative seats in Quebec in nearly a century. Winning in key francophone regions, taking almost 21 per cent of the vote and finishing second in multiple ridings, the Conservatives have been detrimental to the PQ majority.

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Éric Duhaime, its leader, wants to cut spending by $47 billion over five years,cut taxes, and offer private-sector-led solutions to government problems. Monday night, the Conservatives won in multiple regions scoring in areas even the federal Conservatives have not yet been successful. Duhaime is determined to break with the Quebec model, of statism and move the province to the right.

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On the separation question, the Conservatives are aiming to occupy the political space left vacant by the CAQ: that of a third voice, neither separatist, nor federalist. A voice that sees itself as more autonomist and fights for greater provincial powers such as immigration. But always within the Canadian framework.