‘Make your case,’ the U.S. tells Canada on trade. Here’s what that could look like

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“[Trump] doesn’t want countries like Canada to throw lifelines… to China… especially when it’s at the expense of the United States,” he said, referring to Carney’s EV deal with Beijing.

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Nagy said Carney will likely scale back recent trade commitments to China — EVs and possibly energy exports — in exchange for better access to the U.S. market and lower tariffs. 

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But Stern is skeptical the Trump administration truly cares about China.

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“I’ve become very skeptical that the Trump admin really cares about this issue,” he said, noting China is used as a talking point, but Trump isn’t delivering real results.

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Still, improving regulations to crack down on trans-shipment — Chinese goods routed through Canada — could help.

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“I think something that feels real about the Chinese trans-shipment issues would help,” he said. 

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Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Canada can’t integrate with North America and remain open to Chinese EVs or supply chains.

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“You can’t do both,” he said.

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He also said Canada should make itself essential to the U.S. in the broader trade war against China by leveraging its critical minerals — mining, processing, and refining — to help reduce dependence on China.

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For Stern, critical minerals involve the only real negotiating space, where Canada could deliver both policy value and the political optics Trump likes.

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“Critical minerals, I think, is at the nexus of a real thing and sounds good,” he said. 

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Another big issue is the U.S. wanting to raise CUSMA’s regional value content for vehicles to 82 per cent, with 50 per cent from the U.S. Today, 75 per cent must originate in North America.

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Nagy believes this is negotiable but suggested the 50 per cent metric may be a superficial negotiating tool for Trump’s election messaging. 

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Stern also thinks the U.S. proposal is less genuine economic policy and more of a political talking point. Raising the figures makes it harder to make U.S. cars, he added, pointing to how steel tariffs led to a drop in U.S. auto production last year.

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Robertson said Canada could accept the 82 per cent RVC level but not the separate U.S. 50 per cent target, calling it “high from our perspective,” as Canada wants to retain its auto jobs. He also expects tighter border inspection and enforcement.

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A final issue is U.S. farmers’ access to Canada’s dairy market, limited by supply management.

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Annie AcMoody, CEO of Dairy Farmers of Canada, said her organization wants CUSMA to continue in its current form.

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“Each time concessions are granted, they negatively impact the [dairy] sector’s economic contribution,” she said.

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Canadians point out that U.S. dairy exporters have not filled the tariff‑rate quotas (TRQs) under CUSMA as it is. But Kari Heerman, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution, said Washington insists that’s because of how Canada administers the TRQs.

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This has led to litigation, but “the U.S. industry isn’t satisfied,” she said, with the changes to the administration.

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So far, Carney has said Canada’s supply management system is “not on the table,” but Nagy believes that will change.

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“I think everything will be on the table eventually,” he said.

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Robertson also acknowledged that there will likely be some movement on supply management, but not much.

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“We’ll keep supply management,” he said, “but we may give them another percentage or two.”

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Whether any movement by Canada on these issues will be enough is impossible to guess, but it’s unlikely to lead to major CUSMA changes, as Greer has said the Trump administration wants to avoid a congressional vote on it.