Critics skeptical of Canadian study that found only 3% of trans-identifying youth detransition

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The mean age of starting gender-affirming hormones was just over 16.

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The teens were seen every six months and, at each visit, asked about their gender identity and whether they were continuing hormone use.

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Between 2018 and 2020, the researchers looked back at the data in the youths’ medical records. The last visit prior to the chart review was at most six months, senior author Dr. Margaret Lawson, a senior scientist emeritus with the CHEO Research Institute, said in an email to National Post.

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The teens had at least one year of follow up after their first gender clinic visit.

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Of the 445, 421 (95 per cent) continued with their presenting gender identity or re-identified as nonbinary “from initial referral to end of the observation period,” the researchers wrote; 24 (five per cent) changed their gender identity during the follow-up period.

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Although 24 changed their gender identity, only 13 (2.9 per cent) “returned to gender identity typically aligned with sex at birth,” the authors wrote.

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Only one per cent of the 353 adolescents who started on gender-affirming hormones stopped taking them, Lawson and her colleagues report in the Journal of Adolescent Health.

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“The study also found that no one who initially identified as non-binary returned to a binary gender aligned with their birth sex,” first author Dr. Daniel Metzger, a paediatriac endocrinologist at BC Children’s Hospital, said in a statement to National Post.

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“For many youth, access to appropriate care is associated with improved well-being and mental health outcomes,” Metzger said.

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“Other research has also reported low rates of detransition and treatment discontinuation, although findings vary depending on the population studied.”

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Some detransitioners have sued their doctors, alleging their desire for extreme interventions was never challenged and alternative treatments never properly discussed.

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But critics say detransitioning is getting outsized attention because most who pursue gender transition don’t alter course. Stories in the media of detransitioners have been accused of feeding anti-trans rhetoric and bolstering lobbyists pushing for laws restricting or banning gender-affirming care for minors.

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The Canadian paper suggests that appropriately selected youth who undergo comprehensive holistic assessments “are likely to at least be persistent in the short to medium term,” said Targownik, who is a transgender woman.

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“It could be that many of them are continuing to do great and if we reached out to them today, in 2026, they’d say, ‘Hey, I’m doing great. Leave me alone,’” she said.

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“Or we could reach out and they say, ‘I desisted when I was 22.’ We don’t know. And we can’t tell from this data.”

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The science on detransition is still evolving. Other research has found people who detransition do so after an average of five to seven years.

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“I don’t expect the detransition rate at a median two years to be terribly high, but if you follow these patients for five years, or 10 years, you might have a clearer picture,” Targownik said.

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The finding that most youth prescribed hormones remained on hormones “does provide some reassurance that they’re not just starting patients on hormones and they’re desisting right away,” said Targownik, who supports the rights of children and parents to access this care and who said it’s important not all criticism come from people opposed to gender-affirming care.