Carson Jerema: Albertans choose Canada. Perhaps Canada could choose us back

A sign indicating a voting location for the Alberta referendum is shown on Saddlemont Blvd NE in Calgary, Alta on Monday, October 19, 2026. The orange items on the fence are artwork done by the students. Photo by Jim Wells /Postmedia

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EDMONTON — Heading into Monday’s referendum, Alberta separatists had several things going for them. The question on the ballot was not independence, but on whether to have another vote, meaning, it should have been easier to pull in soft supporters of separation, or just plain old fed up Albertans. The federalist campaign was low energy and the separatists had arguments that both sides more or less agreed with, that the province has been badly treated by Ottawa.

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The pro referendum side didn’t even need to win Monday’s vote to claim victory, high enough support, say above 30 or 35 per cent, would have allowed them to claim a growing movement and continue to exert pressure on the provincial and federal governments. I don’t know how that will be possible now, given the results, with 75.7 per cent voting to stay and only 24.3 per cent choosing to have another vote. That’s roughly how the independence side has been polling for months and several points back from its peak.

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This should be viewed as a complete and utter rejection of the separatist cause in Alberta. A higher showing may have prompted the more professional factions on the independence side to argue that they were weighed down by the clownish antics of others, in particular those who went down to the U.S. and reportedly offered to sign over oil royalties and water rights in exchange for support in achieving independence.

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The many factions within the movement struggled to agree on objectives, between negotiating a new deal within Canada and outright independence, and even within those hoping to create a new sovereign country, there was a divide between republicans and those who hoped to keep King Charles III as head of state. Many within these groups have as much or more vitriol for each other as they do for federalists.

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Perhaps a more unified movement could have fared better. But, given the fact they could not grow their support, even as the more competent leaders, such as lawyer Keith Wilson and Western Standard publisher Derek Fildebrandt began to take on a more public role over the summer and into the fall, they should take the hint and redirect their efforts.

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Those efforts would best focused on helping Alberta to assert itself within Canada, as Premier Danielle Smith has been doing by taking the federal government to court when it intrudes on provincial jurisdiction, by persuading Prime Minister Mark Carney to agree to a new pipeline, and by advocating for Alberta’s energy exports in the United States.

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Alberta’s grievances are real, but the problems the province faces can be solved, and this is where efforts are best directed.

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Unfortunately, separation politics has dominated the  inner workings of the governing UCP since its creation in 2017, following a merger between the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties.

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Former premier Jason Kenney, who created the party out of an almost sheer force of will (and a blue pickup truck), attempted to placate the separatist factions in the  party, but was ultimately removed for being insufficiently anti-Ottawa and for complaints over his Covid policies. Though he would come to represent the federalist side in the referendum campaign, it was Kenney who introduced legislation to permit citizen-led referendums.