John Ivison: The awakened separatist dragon will not easily go back to sleep

Alberta separatists, including Alberta Prosperity Project leader Mitch Sylvestre, centre, gather to watch referendum results in Edmonton on Monday, Oct. 19, 2026. Photo by Megan Albu/AFP via Getty Images

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On Saturday night, Mark Carney delivered the most consummately Canadian boast since Joe Clark declared “I’m not the greatest. I’m the best available.”

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It was a surefooted performance that may have moved a few disgruntled federalists back into the “remain” column.

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But he was premature in the extreme when he said a decisive referendum result will “settle this question.”

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The experience of long-dormant separatist movements that have been awoken like Tolkien’s dragon is that they do not go back to sleep once they have sniffed the prospect of political power.

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It’s true the polling suggests a variety of reasons for voting to leave Canada: A recent Abacus Data poll found only a quarter of those voting to pursue a separation referendum said they wanted to set up an independent country.

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Albertans have long had a sense of distinct identity and the independence campaign has given it political expression.

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Western separatist parties have risen before. Gordon Kesler was elected as a member of Alberta’s legislative assembly in a byelection in 1982 and lost his seat in the subsequent general election, where his Western Canada Concept party won 11.8 per cent of the vote. Today the separatists have the backing of one in four of the province’s voters.

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In other jurisdictions, that level of support has provided the base for viable, long-term political movements.

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René Lévesque founded the Parti Québécois in 1968 and two years later won seven seats in the provincial legislature with 23 per cent of the vote.

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In Scotland, long-simmering nationalist sentiment took on a political aspect in the first 1974 general election, with the Scottish National Party winning seven seats with 22 per cent of the vote.

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Both the PQ and the SNP are currently governing their respective jurisdictions.

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But if the bad news is that separatism is a slow-burning fire that is hard to extinguish, the good news is that voters everywhere are in no hurry to break up successful countries.

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While they tub-thump for their distinct identity, they are not necessarily convinced political autonomy is necessary to achieve their full potential.

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Quebec sovereigntists have already lost two referendums; Scottish separatists were defeated in one.

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So, what happens next? Carney told reporters on Tuesday morning that “it’s a great day for Canada” and that he was “thrilled” by a result that showed three in four Alberta voters want to remain in Canada.