Can Lin-Manuel Miranda win Oscar #1 for the Mediocre Mufasa: The Lion King?

2 weeks ago 11

One of Hollywood’s most promising names in the past decade has been Lin-Manuel Miranda. After his stunning success on Broadway, dozens of films have called up the songwriter for his expertise. This has been great for the musician and actor, who racked up an Emmy win, five Emmy nominations, and two Oscar nominations since 2017. Miranda’s latest contribution to Disney comes with Mufasa: The Lion King. Building on the foundation of Disney’s iconic franchise, Miranda finds himself in the Oscar race once again. Meanwhile, with visual effects awards in flux, Mufasa hopes to hear its name on Oscar nomination morning in more than one category.

THE LION KING. Photo courtesy of Disney. © 2024 Disney Enterprises Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Lin-Manuel Miranda is overdue for the Oscar.

Miranda nearly won his EGOT his first time out at the Oscars. During the 2017 ceremony (for 2016 movies), Moana‘s “How Far I’ll Go” was widely considered the runner-up for Best Original Song. Then in 2021, Encanto released, and “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” took over the radio. However, due to Disney’s awards strategy, that song was not eligible for an Oscar. Instead, his nomination came with “Dos Oruguitas.”

In both cases, Miranda made a strong push for runner-up status. That alone creates goodwill for future winners, and his continued presence on the awards trail ingratiates him to voters. This is especially true when voters have voted for him as a winner multiple times, only to see him lose over time. This might lead to some over-exposure (more on that in a minute), but right now, Miranda is in the sweet spot: with two nominations and likely a third on the way, this is the ideal time to award him his first Oscar.

The field for Best Original Song is weak.

While 2023 was dominated by the Barbie soundtrack, 2024 has been a very different scenario. There has not been a dominant track to define movies this year. In fact, the closest any movie might have come is the Twisters soundtrack. With various musicals missing the mark, and Wicked choosing to not have an original song, the category is wide open.

On December 17, the Oscars announced their shortlists in a handful of categories. These votes – done within the branch itself – widdles down the number of contenders for the Oscar nominations. In this case, fourteen songs qualified for the shortlist. Check out the list below.

“Winter Coat” from Blitz
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“Sick In The Head” from Kneecap
“Beyond” from Moana 2
“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King
“Piece By Piece” from Piece by Piece
“Like A Bird” from Sing Sing
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Out Of Oklahoma” from Twisters
“Kiss The Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Harper And Will Go West” from Will & Harper

Across the group, there is certainly some star power. Nominating Elton John: Never Too Late would bring the popular singer/songwriter back to the show after winning an Oscar for Rocketman. A nomination for Challengers also returns Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor. However, both of those performers already have Oscars in hand. That opens the door for someone like Miranda.

The obvious contender to watch will be Emilia Pérez. Not only do they have two nominees here, but they’ve overperformed at nearly every awards show to date. While Emilia Pérez drew criticism from Mexican and LGBTQ+ critics, it’s proven wildly popular in these votes. Above all, the two songs can bring star power and the film’s most distinct moment to the Oscar telecast.

The Lion King. (L-R) Mufasa (voiced by Aaron Pierre), Young Rafiki (Kagiso Lediga), Taka (voiced by Kelvin Harrison Jr.) and Sarabi (Tiffany Boone). Photo courtesy of Disney. © 2024 Disney Enterprises Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Other contenders are overdue.

However, two other figures seem poised to fight for the Oscar as well. Like Miranda, Pharrell Williams has put himself in a strong position in recent years with The Academy. “Piece By Piece” comes from a documentary about his life, and listening to the song after watching the movie might do wonders for his campaign. Williams not only received an Oscar nomination for “Happy” from Despicable Me 2, but he also used his clout to help get Hidden Figures made. If Williams can get into the Oscar lineup, he could surprise here.

The other big name in the awards industry is Dianne Warren. The songwriter’s history with Oscar has been contentious. She has been nominated for 15 Oscars to date and was rewarded an honorary Oscar in 2023. Her continuous nominations have drawn ire, especially when many have recently come for underseen or nearly unseen documentaries.

However, she’s also written hits like “I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing” and “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now.” Is this finally the time for Warren? They may just vote for her to end the streak. However, it’s also clear some voters are tired of voting for her. She may have the support to get these nominations, but it’s clear she does not have the popularity to win the big prize, even when writing with Lady Gaga or Common. Miranda might feel fresh enough to overcome issues that plague Warren.

Will Mufasa: The Lion King deliver Miranda his Oscar?

At this moment, we would argue no. While Miranda certainly has the runway to win the award, Mufasa‘s underperformance with critics and at the box office might be the killer. Even more frustrating for Miranda, they likely selected the wrong song. A duet, there’s a chance that “Tell Me It’s You” becomes the most popular song on the soundtrack. However, “I Always Wanted a Brother” and “Ngomso” have seemingly taken that thunder.

In a weak year, it’s possible that one of the other two songs could have a stronger chance to take the prize. However, with “Tell Me It’s You,” Miranda is at a slight disadvantage. It’s not a bad song by any stretch, but Miranda needs every ounce of momentum to overcome Emilia Pérez. The Netflix musical drama is poised to take home at least five Oscar nominations and stands as the runaway favorite for International feature. Adding another win seems very likely. With Emilia Pérez in the way, Miranda needs to overcome any momentum from the Globes and Critics Choice awards. That seems like a tall task, despite Miranda’s popularity.

Watch Mufasa: The Lion King in theaters today. Lin-Manuel Miranda writes the music, which can be found on music streaming services. Walt Disney Pictures distributes.

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