AGAR: Trudeau’s Liberal ship is sinking

Published Oct 21, 2024  •  2 minute read

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau waits for the arrival of Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa during a welcoming ceremony on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Canada, on March 5, 2024. Photo by DAVE CHAN /AFP via Getty Images

Justin Trudeau’s leadership is in trouble. What happens if he steps down?

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I was talking with a long time political operative and here is what came of that.

In 2016-17, the Liberals went from delegated leadership conventions to one-member, one-vote, and introduced free memberships, setting the stage for interest groups to swarm the leadership race, picking the next leader.

What promises might a leadership contender make to win over these large, mobilized voter blocks? And would foreign actors have an interest in trying to influence the outcome, by leaning on diaspora communities or other actions?

The Liberal Party Constitution reads: The person appointed as the Interim Leader may exercise all the powers of the Leader under this Constitution until a new Leader is elected by the Registered Liberals of the Party.

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So here’s a scenario:

1) Trudeau steps down, sparking a leadership event.

2) Liberal Caucus votes a preferred Interim Leader, who the Party board dutifully approves (how Ignatieff became Leader without a leadership race). That interim leader is then the PM, as the Liberals are in Government. Note that there is no ‘acting PM’ role – he/she would just be the PM with all the powers. Any limitation on that power would be up to the ‘interim’ office holder’s personal ethics.

3) The Board is required to set a date for the leadership vote, but they decide when.

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4) A ‘safe’ interim leader/sitting PM leads the Liberals in the election, and the Liberals avoid having certain special interests taking over the party prior to a general election.

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Going to Canadian voters with the promise of “you’ll find outlater who is your full-time PM” would be a risky strategy, in addition to being unethical. But the Liberals are facing bad outcomes now, and this might not be the worst option.

Possibilities are, they look desperate, devolve into nasty infighting, and get roundly trounced in the general election after a decade in office and a laundry list of misery.

Or the interim leader proves acceptable enough to the general electorate, and the Liberals win. ‘Miraculously,’ nobody opts to enter the leadership race against the sitting PM. A leadership race isn’t needed, and the board calls it off.

Or the sitting PM interim leader does face some minor challengers, but they are small players who can’t marshal the resources to take on a sitting PM.

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Or the interim leader proves acceptable enough with the general electorate, and the Liberals win the election. But he/she really is just an interim leader.

Liberal internal races aren’t limited to Canadian citizens, or permanent residents. In conjunction with free memberships, the race is a feeding frenzy.

Hundreds of thousands of people – perhaps even over a million – sign up to vote in the next Liberal leadership race and pick the next PM of Canada.

Recall the infamous Han Dong nomination where Chinese high school students were bused in by the PRC consulate to vote? Think about that on steroids, to pick the next PM.

Yes, Canadians don’t elect the PM, they elect their local MP. But we all know regular people are going to the polls considering the name at the top of the party.

What’s likely?

Trudeau is too arrogant to step down and the Liberals are trounced in the next election.

That is why Liberal MPs are jumping ship now.

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