Virginia redistricting vote: What polls suggest and what voters will decide

Voters successful Virginia caput to the polls connected Tuesday to determine connected a measurement that could redraw the state’s legislature representation and perchance displacement the equilibrium of powerfulness successful Washington.

Major governmental figures, including erstwhile President Barack Obama and House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson, person weighed successful connected the high-stakes vote, with astir $100m spent connected campaigning astir it.

Part of a broader redistricting conflict that began successful Texas and dispersed nationwide, the ballot whitethorn beryllium the Democrats’ past accidental this twelvemonth to summation seats by changing territory maps. The ballot comes astir six months earlier the 2026 midterm elections.

Here is what we know:

What is Virginia voting on?

Virginia presently sends 11 members to the House. At the moment, six of them are Democrats, and 5 are Republicans, reflecting the state’s balance.

Democrats present privation to redraw the representation to favour them successful a mode that could assistance them triumph up to 10 of the 11 seats. Under the proposal, astir districts would beryllium safely Democratic oregon thin towards the party, with lone 1 powerfully Republican.

A breakdown would be:

• Eight districts would beryllium safely Democratic
• Two would beryllium competitory but thin Democratic
• Only 1 would beryllium safely Republican

If approved, this could springiness the Democrats respective other seats successful Congress, helping them triumph backmost oregon fortify power of the House successful Washington, wherever majorities are often decided by conscionable a fewer seats.

That would beryllium a large governmental displacement for the state, which was erstwhile intimately contested but has go much Democratic-leaning successful caller years.

Supporters depart a run rally against Virginia Democrats’ projected authorities redistricting law amendment [FILE: Ken Cedeno/Reuters]

How would the ballot work?

Voters successful Virginia tin formed their ballots either aboriginal oregon connected Election Day.

Polling stations volition beryllium unfastened crossed the authorities connected Tuesday:

• Polls unfastened astatine 10:00 GMT
• Polls adjacent astatine 23:00 GMT

Votes volition beryllium counted aft polls close, with aboriginal results expected aboriginal that evening and fuller results overnight oregon the adjacent day.

What are voters being asked to decide?

The projected law amendment is the lone statewide contention connected the ballot.

It reads:

“Should the Constitution of Virginia beryllium amended to let the General Assembly to temporarily follow caller legislature districts to reconstruct fairness successful the upcoming elections, portion ensuring Virginia’s modular redistricting process resumes for each aboriginal redistricting aft the 2030 census?”

A “yes” ballot would enactment allowing the General Assembly to redraw legislature districts earlier the midterms.

A “no” ballot would permission existent boundaries unchanged until the adjacent circular of regularly scheduled redistricting aft the 2030 census.

What bash the latest polls suggest?

The effect is expected to beryllium close.

A caller canvass by State Navigate, a nonpartisan probe group, suggests a tiny pb for supporters, with astir 53 percent successful favour and 47 percent against.

Why bash territory lines substance truthful much?

District lines determine however voters are grouped, which tin signifier who wins elections.

Moving the lines tin marque a territory much favourable to a Democratic oregon Republican win, by adding oregon removing neighbourhoods and communities that thin 1 mode oregon the other.

It tin crook a adjacent contention into a harmless seat, oregon the different mode around. It affects which communities are kept unneurotic and who represents them.

This process, often called gerrymandering, allows parties to gully maps that payment them.

In a intimately divided authorities similar Virginia, adjacent tiny changes to the representation tin displacement respective seats and power who holds powerfulness successful Congress.

A 2023 study by Harvard University researchers recovered that gerrymandering often creates “safe” seats for politicians, meaning their races are little competitive.

In turn, those politicians go little responsive to the needs of their constituents, who go discouraged astir voting arsenic a result.

Supporters commune during a run rally against Virginia Democrats’ projected authorities redistricting law amendment [Ken Cedeno/Reuters]

When could caller maps instrumentality effect?

If approved, the caller representation could beryllium utilized arsenic aboriginal arsenic the adjacent predetermination cycle, including the upcoming midterms, depending connected ineligible approval.

However, the program could look ineligible challenges. Critics person questioned the ballot wording and the process utilized by lawmakers.

The Virginia Supreme Court has allowed the ballot to spell up portion reviewing those concerns.

If it aboriginal finds that rules were broken, the results could beryllium overturned, and the existent maps would remain.

Why this ballot could signifier powerfulness successful Washington?

A fistful of seats could determine power of the US House.

Republicans presently clasp a constrictive 218–213 majority, but Democrats are seen arsenic competitory heading into the midterms.

Political leaders person underscored the stakes.

Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic Party’s person successful the House, has pointed to Virginia arsenic a important battleground, portion Mike Johnson has said the effect volition beryllium intimately watched crossed the country.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaks during a run rally [Reuters]

What it means to power the US House

The enactment with the bulk (more seats) successful Congress can:

• Set the agenda, deciding which bills are brought up for debate
• Control committees, including investigations and hearings
• Pass legislation much easy (if they enactment united)
• Block bills from the number party.

The bulk enactment besides chooses the talker of the House, who has large power implicit what reaches the floor.

Where other has this happened?

Virginia’s redistricting ballot is portion of a larger governmental conflict playing retired successful the US. Republicans successful Texas, encouraged by Donald Trump, person redrawn territory maps to fortify their advantage, prompting akin efforts successful different states.

In uncommon cases, voters person been asked to determine directly, including successful California past twelvemonth and present successful Virginia.

In California, voters backed the changes contempt concerns astir fairness. Now it’s Virginia’s crook to decide.

What Democrats are saying, and why?

Democrats reason the program is simply a effect to Republican actions successful different states, not conscionable a powerfulness grab.

Leaders similar Obama had agelong opposed gerrymandering successful principle, but person present backed the Virginia move, adjacent releasing a video asking voters to spell retired and ballot for the law amendment.