Submarine decision expected soon. Will Canada pick German or South Korean?

Many defence industry officials are expecting an announcement on the submarine contract to come on Monday, July 6. Photo by Rob Cross

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The Liberal government promised to announce by the end of June or shortly thereafter the winner of the much sought after multibillion-dollar contract to provide new submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy.

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Many defence industry officials are expecting that announcement to come on Monday, July 6. That timing is seen as optimal for the Liberal government as Prime Minister Mark Carney will be at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, the next day. Carney would be able to use the sub purchase as yet another example to NATO that Canada is serious about spending hundreds of billions of dollars on rearming the Canadian Forces.

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The plan is to buy up to 12 new submarines to replace the navy’s current aging fleet of Victoria-class boats.

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The Contenders

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In late August 2025, the Liberal government announced it had narrowed down its choices to two submarine builders: Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and the South Korean company Hanwha Ocean. Hanwha is offering Canada the KSS-III submarine and TKMS says it will provide the Type 212CD submarine.

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On May 23, a South Korean KSS-III submarine arrived in British Columbia as part of an effort to further defence relations, but also to market the high-tech boat in Canada’s competition.

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The German submarine, being built in conjunction with Norway, is not yet in the water, but it is based on an existing operational boat.

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Considerations

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When it comes to capabilities and weapons, either the German or South Korean submarine can do the job for Canada, senior Royal Canadian Navy officers have concluded. “Both of them fulfil the requirements, the very high requirements for the Canadian Navy,” Carney confirmed in September 2025.

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So that means the selection of the winning bid will focus on other issues.

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A purchase of the German-Norwegian submarine sends a signal by the Canadian government that it is further solidifying its long-standing alliance with European defence partners. The Germans have framed such a deal as a strategic response to the Russians.

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The purchase of the South Korean subs would send the message that Canada is ready to become a significant player in Asia-Pacific by forming an alliance with a major economic powerhouse in the region. Such a Canadian-South Korean deal is being framed as a strategic response to China’s growing presence in the region.

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Speed of delivery is another issue. “I need them yesterday,” Rear-Admiral David Patchell, commander of Maritime Forces Pacific, said May 23 when asked when the navy would need new submarines.

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Only one of the RCN’s current fleet of Victoria-class boats is operational.

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Hanwha officials say they can deliver four KSS-III submarines to Canada by 2035 if a contract is signed in 2026. The first submarine would be delivered in 2032 and the additional submarines would be delivered at a rate of one per year, meaning the entire fleet of 12 submarines can be delivered to Canada by 2043.