Season preview: When Will The Raptors Return To Contending?

Could well depend on if team secures a top pick in next year's loaded NBA draft to pair with Scottie Barnes.

Get the latest from Ryan Wolstat straight to your inbox

Published Oct 19, 2024  •  4 minute read

Toronto Raptors forward Jonathan Mogbo goes up for a shot past Brooklyn Nets forward Jalen Wilson in the first half during a preseason NBA basketball game on Friday. Photo by Heather Khalifa /The Associated Press

From Masai Ujiri, Bobby Webster and Darko Rajakovic to face of the franchise Scottie Barnes, Postmedia assesses the level of hope fans of the Raptors should have heading into the new NBA season with the first part of our season preview. A

Article content

From 2013-14, when the franchise ended a five-year stretch out of the playoffs, to 2019-20, Toronto averaged 53 wins a year, made the conference finals twice and won the NBA title for the first time.

But since then, Toronto has been out of the post-season in four-of-five years, with an ugly play-in loss at home thrown in. The 2023-24 Raptors won only 25 games and had the fifth-worst winning percentage in franchise history.

So, there’s only one way to go from here, but how soon will the Raptors return to the playoffs, let alone to contending to win multiple rounds?

That could well depend on if the team secures a top pick in next year’s loaded NBA draft. Pair Barnes with someone as talented or with an even higher ceiling and the Raptors could be right back in the thick of things soon. Failing that, it could be a while, though this group already has a few significant pieces that most rebuilding teams lack.

Article content

Article content

STATUS TODAY:

As noted, this is far from the worst roster in basketball. Barnes made the all-star game in Year 3, has the talent to make All-NBA teams moving forward and from time to time, looks like a franchise player (as recently as Friday, in the pre-season finale at Brooklyn, Barnes threw down a Giannis Antetokounmpo-like dunk to complete a play that only a small handful of NBAers would be able to pull off).

Immanuel Quickley has never been a starting point guard in the league before, but got paid like one, and for now at least is Toronto’s second-best player. He was one of the NBA’s best reserves in New York and impressed after his trade to Toronto both with his scoring ability and better than previously billed play-making. The expectations are Quickley will rise another level.

RJ Barrett, who also came over in the deal with the Knicks is a huge swing player for the Raptors. If he performs like he did post-trade (basically, at an all-star level), Toronto might be too good to be in position to win the lottery for Cooper Flagg or one of the other top prospects. If her reverts to his New York form Barrett is probably overpaid. Somewhere in between and he’s a decent player.

Jakob Poeltl is an extremely reliable starting centre who has a massive impact on the team’s defence.

Gradey Dick looked good in his second year of exhibition play and needs to make a leap. The rest of the roster is a mixture of rookies and veterans.

Article content

REASON TO BELIEVE:

That would be Barnes. Players like this don’t come around often. The Tampa Bay year was horrible, but Barnes was the reward. Last year stunk too but there was no similar reward because there was no Barnes available in that draft and Toronto had to give its pick to San Antonio anyway to complete the Poeltl trade. If everyone stays healthy this group could make the play-in. It’s unlikely things go as wrong health-wise and off the court as they did last year. And Barrett continued his play with the Raptors to his time with the national team and even into his first 14 minutes of the pre-season. Dick looks like a solid pick at 13 and Jamal Shead, taken 45th this year, might be the type of draft hit the Raptors used to be known for.

Article content

REASON FOR SKEPTICISM:

Injuries are a fact of NBA life and they’ve already started piling up before the real games even start. One major one to a key piece and even the play-in chances fall to unlikely. Plus head coach Darko Rajakovic is trying a brand new defensive system after last year’s futility and it should take time for his charges to learn it (even though many did well with it in the pre-season). Toronto also has the toughest schedule in the NBA over the first couple of months, with only three games against teams that failed to make the playoffs last year, so unless they surprise, they could dig a big hole for themselves early. Seven teams in the conference appear to be significant better than the Raptors, so they likely fight with seven other teams for one playoff spot (and the right to get crushed by the Boston Celtics.

Article content

PROSPECT PIPELINE:

A reload was badly needed and while it’s still missing that high-end player that can turn the tide, there appear to be solid depth prospects in place. Dick is looking to show he can be a starter. No. 19 pick Ja’Kobe Walter has been hurt, but the team sees him as Gary Trent Jr.’s long-term replacement. Jonathan Mogbo, taken 31st overall, is a late bloomer the franchise is quite intrigued by. There’s also Shead, who can help as a defender right away and the opposite in Ulrich Chomche, the youngest player in last June’s draft. He won’t be contributing this year and probably not next season either, but you can see flashes, like his blocked shot and Dikembe Mutombo tribute on Friday.

Toronto owns its first round pick next June, plus Portland’s second (the Blazers should be bad, meaning that’s a decent pick, like the one that ended up getting them Mogbo last season), plus Indiana’s first in 2026.

SALARY CAP SITUATION:

There’s a lot of flexibility to take on a bit of salary this season (or even a bit next, though that’s when the monster Barnes extension will kick in) in exchange for assets like draft picks (similar to how the team got Davion Mitchell, the pick that became Shead and the Portland second rounder from Sacramento).

Recommended from Editorial

1. 

   Raptors poised to provide a sneak peek of the future when 2024 regular season tips off Wednesday

2. 

   Raptors ramp up intensity to close out NBA pre-season with win over Brooklyn Nets

Article content