Real estate association downgrades 2026 national home sales forecast

Home purchases last month were 2.3% below March 2025

Published Apr 16, 2026  •  2 minute read

A sold real estate sign. Photo by Azin Ghaffari /Postmedia Network

The ongoing global economic uncertainty is expected to put a dent on home sales in Canada this year.

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That’s according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which has downgraded its forecast of sales activity in 2026 after it released weak March numbers on Thursday.

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“Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year,” Shaun Cathcart, the association’s senior economist, said in a statement.

Forecast revised to fewer sales

Cathcart said the year will see a “modest amount” of increased sales as well as price stability, but the forecast has been revised to fewer homes being sold.

“The timing of higher mortgage rates, along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be buyers away at the most active time of year — April, May and June — as they wait for rates to come back down,” he said.

According to CREA figures, month-over-month sales across the country were almost unchanged (-0.1%) while purchases last month were 2.3% below March 2025.

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In addition, new listings edged down 0.2% on a month-over-month basis in March, which could be due to new homes are running at the lowest levels since mid-2024.

There were 167,524 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS Systems at the end of March, which is up just 1% from a year earlier. However, the number of properties listed is 10.6% below the long-term average for that time of the year.

Sale listings in decline

The CREA said the overall supply has generally been declining since May of last year.

“While the interest rate situation has recently changed, what could be a challenge for a buyer looking for a fixed rate mortgage may also be seen as more choice and less competition for those choosing a variable rate,” CREA’s 2026-27 chair Garry Bhaura said.

“Spring tends to be a busier time of year for the housing market, even if it may not be quite as busy as we were expecting not so long ago.”

The association also said the national average sale price was down 0.8% on a year-over-year basis last month.

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