Parliament returns with a big agenda and a fight brewing between Carney and labour unions

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Poilievre faces an uphill battle with Canadian voters, a recent poll published by the Angus Reid Institute showed that 13 per cent of respondents who voted Conservative in the 2025 federal election, would now vote for Carney if given the chance.

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Even the deputy leader of the party, Melissa Lantsman, acknowledged that her and her caucus colleagues are “not in the position that we want to be in.”

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The Conservative leader remains focused on affordability concerns, which runs a close second to the U.S. trade war in terms of issues Canadian voters care about.

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On Monday, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will table a bill that extends the holiday on the gas excise tax until the end of January, after the Conservatives called on the federal government make the pause on the tax permanent.

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Yaroslav Baran, Conservative strategist and co-founder of Pendulum Group, said Champagne can expect the Conservatives to hammer the Liberals on their fiscal track record.

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“One can argue that in broad strokes, Mr. Carney is this governing with a considerably more Conservative agenda than his predecessor,” he said. “But if you look at the public accounts, deficits and debt are skyrocketing, and that’s going to be a very obvious opening for the Conservatives.”

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The federal budget will be tabled during the fall session, which will provide an update on the country’s finances.

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Poilievre told his caucus members at his caucus retreat that he has found $150 billion in savings the Liberals can capitalize on, with proposed cuts to foreign aid, federal bureaucracy and government’s proposed high-speed rail project.

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Federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a news conference in Regina, on Monday, September 7, 2026. Photo by Heywood Yu/Regina Leader-Post/Postmedia

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The federal government has made several new spending announcements over the summer months, including a national AI strategy, a food security strategy, a West Coast pipeline project and a cooperative prosperity agreement with the province of British Columbia.

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Carney told his caucus on Friday that his government will “maintain its fiscal advantage” while also acknowledging the cost of borrowing for governments is increasing globally as bond yields rise.

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Economists will be watching for how the government accounts for its new spending initiatives and how that impacts Canada’s deficit track going forward, though oil prices are expected to be an upside for government revenues.

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Budget watchers will also be looking for the federal government’s NATO defence spending plan and how it plans to achieve a four per cent of GDP spending target by 2030, as outlined by Carney himself this past spring.

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Champagne wrapped up his pre-budget consultations earlier this month. At the investment summit, the government announced a “Productivity Super-Deduction” which will lower Canada’s marginal corporate effective tax rate on new business investment from roughly 13 per cent to 6.4 per cent. Carney also announced his government intends to privatize the operations of Canada’s four largest airports.

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“The big question mark to me, and what I think a lot of political watchers will be watching for this fall, is what the budget looks like,” said Variyan.

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She noted that the government has already announced significant spending initiatives, including a $51-billion Build Communities Strong Fund for infrastructure and significant defence spending commitments.

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“I don’t see very much left in terms of big-ticket spending items for this fall budget, which means they’ll need something else to put in the shop window to create that sense of momentum and of doing things,” she added.

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The U.S. trade war will also continue to loom large on Canadian domestic politics. Carney decided pause negotiations on a deal on sectoral tariffs with the U.S. last month, citing several last-minute demands from American negotiators that made a deal untenable.