OCDSB enrolment projected to drop, Catholic board predicts increase

OCDSB supervisor Bob Plamondon is giving middle immersion a two-year reprieve. Photo by ASHLEY FRASER /POSTMEDIA

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The city’s largest school board is projecting a drop in student enrolment next year, while the Ottawa Catholic School Board is predicting an uptick.

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Elementary enrolment at the Ottawa-Carleton District School Board (OCDSB) is expected to decrease by 766 students in 2026-2027, while secondary enrolment for schools under the board is expected to dip by 338 students, according to a report to the board’s audit committee.

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The board expects to cut a total of 83 teacher positions.

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“We’ve expressed our disappointment in (the board’s) decision to go in that direction,” Stephanie Kirkey, president of the teachers bargaining unit of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers Federation, said.

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Adult students over 21, who were formerly grouped in the secondary enrolment category, will be transitioned to the Continuing Education Day School model, a different program. This restructuring by the board has affected about 20 of the 83 teacher positions being cut, said Kirkey.

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There are other factors that have contributed to the lower number of predicted enrolments next year, including a decrease in birth rates, parents opting to keep kindergarten-aged children at home, fewer international students and a decline in immigration. But the OCDSB projections are “consistent with the experience of many other Ontario school boards,” said the report.

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Meanwhile, the Ottawa Catholic School Board is projecting 577 more secondary students enrolled in its schools well 856 more elementary students. The Catholic board is predicting particularly sharp growth at some high schools, including 185 more students at All Saints in Kanata, 92 more students at St. Matthew in Orléans and 91 more at Immaculata.

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Most provincial funding is tied directly to average daily enrolment. A drop in enrolment means less money and cuts to staffing. Boards are required to submit enrolment estimates to the Ministry of Education by the end of June, with revisions after the start of school in September.

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There’s a danger to being overly-optimistic about enrolment projections. In 2023, the “funding gap” between the OCDSB’s expected enrolment and actual enrolment was $15 million out of a total budget of $1.1 billion, for example. When enrolment is lower than projected, teachers and students are shuffled around, sometimes resulting in split and combined classes and education workers being moved to other classes or schools.

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The OCDSB has been under provincial supervision since last June. Donna Blackburn, an elected trustee who has opposed supervision, said uncertainty at OCDSB is pushing people to perceive the Catholic board as “a more stable option.”

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Comparing the two boards is like comparing apples to oranges, said Blackburn. However, she believes OCDSB is “bleeding students to the Catholic board for sure.”