John Ivison: The buzz in Conservative circles this week isn’t about Pierre Poilievre

Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre delivers a keynote address at the Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Ottawa May 7, 2026. Photo by Blair Gable /Postmedia

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Pierre Poilievre’s speech to the conservative Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Ottawa on Thursday was a perfectly acceptable Opposition leader’s address.

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Modestly delivered and modestly received, it had much to be modest about.

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The problem was, it sounded like a reheated version of one of his speeches from last year’s election, a campaign in which he was rejected by voters who were apt to see him as too chippy and too negative.

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The Carney government has proven to be as ineffective as the Trudeau Liberals, even if the prime minister is “not quite as nauseating” as his predecessor, Poilievre said.

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“Powerful interests” fight to stay in power, he said. “A club of Liberal elites dominate this town and every microphone in it; (they) dominate political panels on talk shows and control the airwaves; they spend millions of dollars on attack ads, that are unregulated outside an election period, in order to stay in power. All of this to enhance their privilege.”

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Those interests want to change him, Poilievre said. “They say we should just join the club and accept the status quo … That would be easier, but Easy Street leads to a dead end.”

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There were probably some in the audience who lapped up this kind of neurosis. But there are a growing number of Conservatives who want their leader to use the time gifted by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new majority to present a more dignified face to the world as a Conservative prime minister in waiting.

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A recent Angus Reid Institute poll said three in 10 party members want someone else to lead them into the next election — apparently having concluded that Poilievre is incapable of presenting as that prime minister in waiting on a consistent basis.

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Poilievre recently experimented with a more temperate public persona, but those close to him say he became frustrated when there was no immediate uptick in the polls.

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Most party insiders expect Poilievre to remain in his job, despite April’s disastrous by-election results that saw the Conservatives lose an average of 12 percentage points, compared to the last election. A similar 12-point dip in the next vote would see more than 50 members of the current caucus lose their seats, which must concentrate minds.

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The quiescence of his MPs thus far is largely a function of the lack of alternatives. Nobody in the caucus appears ready to challenge Poilievre, and the party’s former grandees have all demurred.

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Former Alberta premier and federal Conservative cabinet minister Jason Kenney is the most widely touted as a potential leader, but a source close to him said that is unlikely. He is said to be enjoying private life after 25 years in electoral politics.