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The continued standoffs in the Straits of Hormuz are expected to push gasoline prices up by as much as 10 cents to 12 cents per litre in the capital by Friday, industry watchers say.
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According to Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst with En-Pro International Inc., Ottawa-area drivers can expect a bump of about three cents per litre Thursday and another seven cents at midnight Friday.
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McKnight said in a recent note to clients there are more signs of “solidarity fatigue” in the Middle East as the United Arab Emirates, the world’s third-largest producer, declared it was leaving OPEC on May 1.
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The UAE’s decision had been rumoured for some time, as it had pushed back in recent years against OPEC production quotas it felt had been too low.
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“It would seem the UAE is tired of bumping heads with the Saudis over production quotas and has chosen to set its own rules, play its own game, with its own team members,” McKnight wrote.
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“The decision to leave means OPEC will no longer control the UAE’s output, which will allow it to increase production on its own, which could drive oil prices lower,” he said.
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Nevertheless, the UAE’s shift is not expected to have any immediate effects in markets because world oil supplies remain sharply constrained with the blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, which transports about one-fifth of global oil supplies.
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The price of oil soared above $126 U.S. a barrel Wednesday, its highest level since 2022, after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports could last for months. The price fell back to about $114 Thursday.
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Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, is expecting gas price hikes of eight cents per litre on Friday, pushing the average price back above $1.80/litre in the region.
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