Mohamed Fahmy: Trump nears peace deal with Iran for the 38th time

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By striking Israel directly in response to attacks in Beirut, Tehran signaled that its red lines extend far beyond its borders. The message was unmistakable: Iran’s leadership and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are increasingly willing to abandon the shadows and accept greater risks in a bid to restore deterrence and project power across the region.

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Following the Apache shoot-down and Washington’s military response, Tehran appeared eager to shift the narrative. In a post on X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi suggested that foreign forces operating near Iran’s borders should expect the risks of “human error, accidents, or being caught in the crossfire.” His proposed solution was straightforward: foreign militaries should leave the region.

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Yet the message was hardly conciliatory. While claiming that Iran prefers the “language of diplomacy,” Araghchi warned that Tehran is equally capable of “speaking other languages” — a thinly veiled threat that any further U.S. escalation would trigger a firm Iranian response.

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Iran’s denial of responsibility for the Apache shoot-down, despite U.S. confirmation of the incident, and its rapid return to the familiar demand that “foreign militaries leave the region” illustrate the kind of strategic ambiguity that some celebrate as statecraft and others view as duplicity. Either way, it makes peace harder to achieve.

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The obstacles are obvious. The Gulf states will not part with the American military presence that underpins their security. The United States will not relax its pressure campaign while Iran threatens one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. And Israel will not stop pursuing Hezbollah while the Lebanese government remains unable to disarm a heavily armed organization that has long functioned as a state within a state.

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As a result, the war’s underlying drivers remain intact.

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In a rare televised interview from inside Iran on Friday, conducted by CNN’s Fred Pleitgen — my former colleague at CNN — Mohsen Rezaei, a senior military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, revealed that Tehran has requested the release of $24 billion in frozen assets as a “test of trust” to revive stalled negotiations, insisting that the next move rests with President Trump. His comments carry considerable weight given his longstanding ties to Iran’s security establishment and decision-making circles.

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Rezaei also reiterated Iran’s claim to a greater role in managing the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that Iran and Oman should jointly oversee the strategic waterway through which a significant share of global oil and LNG shipments once passed. The proposal has been rejected by Washington and other international actors, who view free navigation through the strait as a global norm rather than a regional bargaining chip.

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Following Tuesday night’s so-called U.S. “self-defence” strikes, Iran once again retaliated by launching missiles toward U.S. military installations in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Most were intercepted, but the cycle of escalation remains a threat.

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Washington, however, appears intent on raising the stakes. Speaking at U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared, “If we need to negotiate with bombs, we’ll negotiate with bombs, and we’re very good at it.”

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President Trump’s may believe that his repeated threats and bombing campaigns will force Iran to consolidate at thje negotiating table although Tehran has long viewed diplomacy under military pressure as surrender.

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Perhaps the clearest indication of what may come next came from Ebrahim Azizi, head of Iran’s National Security Commission, who warned after the Apache helicopter shoot-down: “This time, the war won’t be limited to the region.”

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On Thursday, in the span of a few hours, Trump went from threatening Iran with “very hard” new strikes and openly discussing the seizure of critical Iranian oil infrastructure to announcing that the “final points” of a potential deal had been approved by “all parties involved” — without actually naming Iran among them.