Mohamed Fahmy: Iran’s brazen attack on Kuwait airport shows the war is far from over

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From the outset of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran, as many experts expected, responded with thousands of missiles and drones targeting U.S. bases and civilian sites across six Gulf states, including Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. While most were intercepted by the advanced air defense systems of these oil-rich countries, the region was nonetheless pulled directly into a war it had sought to avoid.

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During my three months covering the conflict in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates at the height of the escalation, one question kept resurfacing among local populations: Are we paying the price for hosting U.S. bases on our soil?

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Indeed, each time air raid sirens sounded during the war, people grew increasingly accustomed to the distant thuds and explosions that followed. It was understandable to see others, including many anxious fellow Canadians evacuating the country altogether, unable to endure the sight of their children watching missiles and drones being intercepted in the night sky just outside their homes, as debris from intercepted strikes began falling onto residential neighborhoods.

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Many of the targets included at least 15 to 20 U.S. military sites across the Gulf region. Some of these outposts were rendered uninhabitable, though none were completely destroyed, and they continue to be attacked today. Perhaps, those claiming a U.S. victory should see the visual forensics investigation published by The Washington Post, which revealed that at least 228 structures and pieces of heavy military equipment have been damaged or destroyed across these installations — more than the United States lost in the theatre of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Wednesday, Iran also targeted a U.S. air base in Bahrain, where the U.S. Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Manama. However, U.S. Central Command stated that all incoming missiles and drones were intercepted and that no U.S. facilities were struck.

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So what has the United States been doing during this ceasefire, beyond amplifying President Trump’s unverified claims that Iran’s military has been obliterated, its missile program decapitated, and the war effectively won?

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During the recent ceasefire in the war with Iran, the United States moved with unusual urgency to fast-track more than $34 billion in emergency weapons and missile defense systems for Gulf countries — sidestepping the usual congressional review process in the name of “urgent national security needs,” as states such as the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar continued to grapple with Iranian missile strikes.

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Kuwait emerged as the largest contributor in this tranche, committing approximately $9.3 billion for interceptor missiles alone.

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Since the ceasefire in April, the U.S. president has announced at least a dozen times that a deal with Iran had been reached, often in sweeping and hyperbolic terms. On May 23, for instance, he described the agreement as “largely negotiated,” and even claimed on social media that Iran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At various points, he has further insisted that Iran had “agreed to everything.” Yet U.S. and Iranian officials have repeatedly clarified that negotiations remain ongoing and no final agreement has been reached.

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The 80-year-old U.S. president also drew the moniker “TACO,” an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

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So far, both warring countries have been using military force as leverage to negotiate, calibrate escalation, and exert pressure on the parties at the negotiating table.

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The reality is that there was no formal deal — only a fragile memorandum of understanding, reportedly brokered in large part by Pakistan and Qatar, pending further negotiations in Washington this morning after days of escalation following the Kuwait attack and sustained hostilities between the two countries.