LILLEY: Don’t expect Doug Ford to call an early election this spring

Ford remains hesitant to go early, especially as a crisis grows at the federal level.

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Published Dec 30, 2024  •  Last updated 0 minutes ago  •  3 minute read

This image taken from an X posting by Toronto Sun columnist Brian Lilley shows Doug Ford being questioned by reporters about comments he made when Umar Zameer getting was granted bail. A jury found Zameer not guilty of criminal charges Sunday in the death of Det.-Const. Jeffrey Northrup.

The best laid plans of mice and premiers often go astray, and that seems to be the case with the idea that the Ford government should call an early election.

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Despite all the hype, the way things stand now, the betting money would say the likelihood of a spring election in Ontario is slim to none.

Speculation about Premier Doug Ford calling an early election started last May, when Ford wasn’t even two full years into his second mandate. While much of it was media driven and often misguided, there is a faction within Ford’s circle of advisors that wanted him to head to the polls in the spring of 2024.

During the past seven months, there have been claims that Ford would call an election in the summer of 2024. There were assurances that he would definitely call an election in the autumn of 2024.

None of those dates were ever under serious consideration. Still, Ford never ruled out the idea, all the better to keep his NDP and Liberal opponents on their toes and unsure of when an election might be called.

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“This is killing us,” a Liberal campaign worker said of the uncertainty last spring of the rush to prepare.

Since last spring, the Liberals and the NDP have been rushing to prepare for an early vote. They have been recruiting and nominating candidates, fundraising and planning for a campaign. The NDP even cancelled their party convention in March, sure that there would be an early election.

Now it seems it was all for nothing.

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The reality is that if Ford was ever to go early, and that was always a big if, the timeline would have been in the spring of 2025. The thinking was to hold an election ahead of a federal vote in October 2025 to get Ford out in front of the changes that will come at the federal level.

If the Trudeau government were to survive until October 2025, an increasingly unlikely scenario, then that would have put Ford in a tough spot. With Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives almost certain to win, the bloated bureaucracy that Trudeau has created would undoubtedly see cuts in the budget.

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No matter how justified those cuts would be, the media headlines for Poilievre’s first budget – likely in April 2026 – would be coming out just as Ford would be starting his election campaign. The idea of going early was mostly to avoid those bad headlines just before Ford was set to ask voters for a third mandate in June 2026.

Of course, Ford would need a better reason than crass political concerns to justify going to the polls early. Now, he likely doesn’t need one because the federal scene is shifting by the day and the Trudeau government could fall as soon as the end of January, making a provincial vote complicated.

“Events dear boy, events,” the old saying goes about what changes political fortunes.

“There is only one person who makes that decision,” said a senior Ford advisor when asked about the possibility of an early election.

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That person, of course, is Ford, and while some advisors have pushed hard to go early, the premier has never been convinced. Now, with the federal scene thrown into chaos with the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, with the tariff threats from Donald Trump, and the possibility of that federal vote, convincing Ford to go early is that much harder.

There are those whispering the name David Peterson in Ford’s ear, warning that the Liberal premier lost in 1990 over his decision to call an election early. Of course, there were other factors that brought Peterson down, including his offer to give Ontario Senate seats to Quebec to pass the Meech Lake accord, the deteriorating economy and more.

For every David Peterson, there is a John Horgan, a Tim Houston, a Jean Chretien — leaders who went early and won.

Still, Ford remains unconvinced that an early election is a good idea at this point.

Bottom line: Don’t expect Ford to head to the polls early, at least not before the federal scene is settled.

Of course, this being politics, things could change. So, stay tuned.

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