Kelly McParland: Canada’s in a standoff between the prime minister and the people

Liberal efforts have only worsened their poll numbers: cabinet shuffles, new spending, apocalyptic denunciations of the Conservatives...

Published Oct 13, 2024  •  4 minute read

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau unsuccessfully attempts to win over a steelworker during a contentious exchange at a meet and greet with Algoma Steel workers in Sault Ste. Marie on Friday, Aug. 30, 2024. Photo by THE CANADIAN PRESS/ /Kenneth Armstrong

Three weeks out from one of the most consequential presidential elections in history, something truly exceptional has become clear: if Donald Trump were a tropical storm, he could crash across vast portions of the United States, sending down torrents of rain, pushing streams over their banks, sinking entire neighbourhoods in waist-deep rivers of brackish water, and 50 per cent of Americans caught in the deluge wouldn’t admit they were wet.

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The contest between Trump and Kamala Harris is tied. Harris may be ahead just a tad overall, but the result is likely to be decided in a handful of undecided states where voters are still wavering between the two. Nothing Trump has said or done in the months since President Joe Biden gave in to pressure and stepped aside has significantly changed his standing with his half of the electorate. Immigrants are eating people’s pets; the FEMA disaster relief agency has no money left because it gave it all to illegal immigrants; Democrats are in favour of abortions even after a child has been born; schools are kidnapping children and forcibly changing their sex; gaining power from windmills means people can’t watch television unless it’s windy outside…

None of it matters. Americans who favour Trump — 63 million in 2016 and more than 74 million in the 2021 contest — plan to vote for him anyway. Nothing anyone can say will change their minds. They may be the most unwavering disciples since Jim Jones; if the next Trump rally included purple Kool-Aid, a lot of the crowd might well drink it.

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In that, if in nothing else, Canada has something on the U.S. Based on what they’ve been telling pollsters and pundits for months now, large numbers of voters have changed their minds about Justin Trudeau. His standing with the public has become steadily worse each time out, from almost 40 per cent of the vote in 2015 to 33 per cent in 2019, to 32 per cent in 2021, and down to the results of the latest polls that put him at just 22 per cent support, tied with New Democrats and in a heated race for third or even fourth place.

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Canadians, then, are clear that they no longer want Trudeau around. They’re tired of him, they’d prefer someone else. It’s not just the dire state of so many things people consider important that’s changed minds, it’s the man himself. The prime minister simply refuses to accept that it’s time to leave. He gives interviews (to friendly sources) indicating he still thinks he can turn things around. He can rise from the dead, make Canadians love him again. All it takes is indomitable will and a determination to finish the job. He’s intent on his intentions and signals that nothing can divert him from his path.

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The situation has become a standoff between the prime minister and the people, an impasse that’s attracted attention beyond the borders of the country. The New York Times recently sought to explain to its readers, “How Canadians Fell Out of Love with Justin Trudeau.”

“After years of high inflation, soaring housing costs and an overstretched public health system, Mr. Trudeau faces abysmal polling numbers. Fewer than a third of Canadians believe he’s doing a good job. More than 70 percent say Canada is ‘broken’ under his leadership,” it reported.

Britain’s London Times wondered, “Where did it all go wrong for Justin Trudeau?” citing an array of unsettled issues, economic problems and a weariness with style over substance. Michelle Gaudreault, a retired accountant from the Laval, told its reporter: “We’re in terrible economic shape, we no longer are proud to bring in newcomers, we disagree on everything. It’s time to try something, someone new.”

The rot has long been evident within the Liberal party, if restrained by a reluctance — born of fear and self-preservation — to say as much in public. But Trudeau’s determined insouciance is showing signs of frazzling nerves even there. The loyalist Toronto Star reports that a clamour is rising within the ranks. “This is not your usual rabble-rousers, this runs deeper than that,” offered an unnamed member of Trudeau’s caucus. Seat projections estimate the Liberals would hold just 57 of their 153 seats, a result that would send almost 100 MPs back to an uncertain working world. Confronted with so dire a threat — pensions are at risk in addition to paycheques — as many as 30 or 40 caucus members are said to be willing to sign a letter urging Trudeau to reconsider his plans, according to The Star.

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Until recently, one of Trudeau’s safeguards from revolt was the belief he remained the party’s best campaigner, and thus its best hope of saving some of the furniture from an anticipated wipeout. That conviction may be eroding. Months of efforts have failed to move the needle of support anywhere but down: cabinet shuffles, celebrity recruitment drives, new spending announcements, increasingly apocalyptic denunciations of the opposition Conservatives.

And there’s Trudeau himself, who seems determined to float above the clamour, jetting off to international summits, wrapped in a protective layer of self-regard. If a leader who takes a third-place party and, nine years later, sends it straight back into the basement is the best you can find, a lot of minds would conclude it’s time for a radical reassessment.

Prorogation isn’t the answer, it’s just a cave to hide in temporarily. It’s time Canadians be given the opportunity to pass judgment via an election.

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