John Ivison: There’s more to the Stelco shutdown than Trump winning and Canada losing

Coils of steel sit in a yard at the Stelco plant in Hamilton Works in Hamilton, Ont., on June 4, 2025. Photo by Cole Burston/AFP via Getty Images

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“We’re going to win everything… Canada is going to come in and say: ‘Sir, we are very sorry’.”

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U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters in the White House on Monday that he thinks a trade deal with Canada that gets rid of tariffs will be struck, possibly within three to four weeks.

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The impression left by the president is that all the pain from the trade war is being felt on a Canadian side that is ready to kow-tow and submit to his authority.

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Steel producer Stelco has told customers that it is “indefinitely idling” the cold-rolled and coated lines at its Hamilton, Ont. works because of tariffs, impacting 350 jobs.

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On the same day, Trump unveiled plans for a US$15-billion steel mill in Iowa that will create 1,750 jobs: a timely announcement, given Iowa’s Senate seat is a toss-up in the looming midterm elections.

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“The steel industry is roaring back to life. Everyone’s building their plants here because they don’t want to pay tariffs,” the president said.

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On this evidence, there is so much winning for the White House — and, just as importantly, so much losing for Canada.

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The whiners on social media were out in force. “(Mark) Carney is the world’s best talker and the world’s worst negotiator,” was the reaction of one person, and there were many others lamenting Canada’s lack of leverage.

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To be fair to the president, there are signs that his efforts to lure manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. are paying off.

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American voters will decide in the midterm elections whether a marginal increase in manufacturing employment is worth the increase in the cost of living and the scapegoating of loyal allies.

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But the Stelco case does not indicate that Canada is heading for humiliating defeat.

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For one thing, the Canadian economy is proving more resilient than many predicted. The GDP numbers for July were flat, but advanced estimates for August indicate the economy remains on course for third-quarter growth (annualized) of 1.8 per cent.

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Canada’s economy is still expanding, despite the trade war.

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The government pointed to Tuesday’s announcement by LNG Canada (a consortium of five global energy companies) that it plans a massive $30-billion expansion to its Kitimat, B.C. terminal as indicative of the sense of possibility that still exists.

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At the announcement in B.C., Wael Sawan, Shell’s global CEO, said the expansion is a sign of confidence in Canada as a place to invest and do business.

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Carney said the commitment to build the second largest LNG facility in the world is a demonstration that “Canada is working.”

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“(We) fully value export diversification and the greater sovereignty it confers,” he said.

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Another reason that too much should not be read into the Stelco announcement is that it is an atypical case. The company is owned by the U.S.-company Cleveland Cliffs, whose chairman, Lourenco Goncalves, is a vocal supporter of the president and his tariff policy.