Map shows the U.S. states hit hardest by Trump’s trade war with Canada

Six of the nine U.S. states that conduct the highest share of their total trade with Canada are along the northern border. Photo by Advancing American Freedom Foundation

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But just five states account for $284 billion, or 42 per cent, of the total: Illinois, Texas, Michigan, New York, and Ohio. Illinois leads at $76 billion, followed by Texas ($70 billion) and Michigan ($67 billion). New York’s annual volume of trade with Canada equates to $37 billion, while Ohio’s is $34 billion.

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However, the states with the largest overall volume of trade with Canada are not necessarily those most exposed to the economic effects of the dispute.

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Illinois, Texas, Michigan, New York, and Ohio accounted for 42 per cent of U.S.-Canada goods trade in the 12 months ending in June 2026. Photo by Advancing American Freedom Foundation

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Analyst Kat Miller explains in the AAF memo: “A trade war with Canada will negatively impact many (U.S.) states, especially those heavily engaging in trade with Canada, including energy- and mineral-rich states, many heavy-industry dependent states, and our agricultural heartlands.”

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She examined the share of each state’s total goods trade conducted with Canada, rather than the volume of trade with Canada, to provide a more accurate picture of which states are most dependent on Canada as a trading partner. Her analysis shows that the states with the highest shares are clustered along the northern border and the plains, with six of the nine highest-share states bordering Canada.

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For example, North Dakota and Montana are most exposed to the impacts of the trade war, with Canada accounting for 77 per cent of each state’s total goods trade. They are followed by Maine at 62 per cent, Vermont at 55 per cent, West Virginia and South Dakota at 43 per cent, and Oklahoma at 40 per cent.

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States with the highest share of their goods trade with Canada are most exposed to the impacts of the trade war. Photo by Advancing American Freedom Foundation /Advancing American Freedom Foundation

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Meanwhile, several states that conduct a significant portion of their trade with Canada have become key battlegrounds in the upcoming U.S. midterms, including Maine, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio — all of which are considered a toss-up for the Senate race by The Cook Political Report.

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When the Canadian government announced its decision to exempt American seafood from its counter-tariff list, she expressed her gratitude in a statement, and emphasized Canada’s importance to the U.S. as a close ally and trading partner.