John Ivison: If Canada really is open for business, Carney needs to rein in labour strife

Prime Minister Mark Carney. Photo by Gavin Young/Postmedia

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Mark Carney’s pitch to over 100 institutional investors from 11 countries, responsible for over $70 trillion, in Toronto this week is that Canada is open for business.

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The early signs from the Canada Investment Summit are that the Prime Minister is on track to raise $1 trillion in new spending commitments over the next five years. Eight Canadian financial institutions have already pledged more than $300 billion to finance and underwrite energy, critical mineral, defence, digital and infrastructure projects.

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But what all those investors and potential investors want to know is: can Carney guarantee continued preferential access to the United States; and, what is the federal government going to do about labour and regulatory hurdles that make this country such a difficult place to do business in comparison to its peers?

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On the first point, the signs point to a deal with the United States this year. According to people close to the negotiations, the U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, would prefer to deal with a Republican-dominated Congress, something that is unlikely to survive November’s midterm elections.

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The U.S. and Mexico are rushing to finalize an interim deal before the midterms. In August 2018, it was the preliminary deal between the two that was extended the following month to include Canada. Something similar may happen this time around, with Ottawa being invited to join an existing bilateral deal between Washington and Mexico City.

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What shape that agreement will take remains to be seen, but the more U.S. President Donald Trump talks about Canada wanting a deal, the likelier it is that he is pushing for one.

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Carney has to win over Ontario Premier Doug Ford, which means a lower effective tariff rate on autos than was on offer last month. But sources suggest the Americans want assurances that were not included in the August deal — namely, first right of refusal on critical minerals, the purchase of all 88 F35 fighter jets and participation in the Golden Dome missile defence shield.

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I suspect we are likely to see the language soften in the next few weeks, as Carney pivots from talking about a “permanent rupture” in relations with the U.S., even as makes overtures to the European Union.

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For all their sense of betrayal over America, I don’t think Canadians are ready to incorporate European laws and regulations (especially without voting rights), if that is what “associate membership” of the EU entails. We already have a trade deal with the Europeans that has not been fully ratified by 10 countries, including France and Italy.

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The other concern for potential foreign investors is the business climate in Canada.

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Strikes are a major concern. OECD statistics for 2011 to 2016 show Canada was third highest in terms of work stoppages among rich countries, behind France and Belgium. In 2023, the country lost 6.6 million person days of work, principally public servants, teachers and port workers — the highest since 1986, according to Statistics Canada.