Ford calling again to block oil, potash exports to U.S. in trade war gets cold response

Ontario Premier Doug Ford arrives for a meeting at a Charlottetown Hotel during Canada's Premiers 2026 in Charlottetown, PEI Tuesday July 21, 2026. TIM KROCHAK PHOTO

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OTTAWA — Westerners might be experiencing a sense of déjà vu as Ontario’s premier is once again suggesting an embargo on oil exports to the U.S. to retaliate against tariffs.

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Ontario Premier Doug Ford told reporters at the first ministers’ meeting in Charlottetown on Tuesday that Canada should leverage its most valuable resources to hit back at the U.S. after the White House announced plans for new tariffs this week.

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“No matter if it’s the electricity — and I’m not speaking for the other provinces, I’m going to be very clear — the potash, the oil … they need to feel the pain,” said Ford. The Ontario premier had last year suggested restrictions on oil and potash exports in response to President Donald Trump’s first round of tariffs, but met immediate resistance from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe.

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The new 50 per cent tariff is expected to hit Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia the hardest, while leaving Alberta and Saskatchewan relatively unscathed.

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When the then Trudeau Liberal government briefly floated the idea of putting an export tax on oil exports to the U.S., Smith refused to sign a joint federal-provincial statement voicing solidarity against the Trump administration’s tariffs.

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Smith repeated again on Tuesday that she did not support Ford using western resources as a weapon.

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Earlier this month, she and Ford announced a proposal for a west-to-east Northern Shield pipeline from Alberta’s oil sands to refineries in Sarnia, Ont. to circumvent the U.S. route that western oil currently takes to reach Ontario.

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Alberta and Saskatchewan produce nearly all of roughly 4.3-million barrels of oil Canada sends to the U.S. per day. Saskatchewan is the country’s sole producer of potash, a critical mineral used to create fertilizer, and supplies 85 per cent of the potash used on American farms.

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Crude oil is Canada’s top export to the U.S. and potash is its top mineral export.

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One early estimate of the impact of the latest Section 338 tariffs, calculated by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, forecasts that the new tariffs will negatively impact 13.7 per cent of B.C. exports, 10.8 per cent of Quebec exports and nine per cent of Ontario exports.

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Tombe calculates that just one per cent of Alberta exports and 1.2 per cent of Saskatchewan exports will be impacted.

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But some analysts say there are much better ways to leverage Canada’s oil and potash than with blockades.

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Jack Mintz, an economist and chair of public policy at the University of Calgary, said that the two commodities will be an indispensable source of revenue as Canada deals with the broader dislocation of its trade relationship with the U.S.