Expert warns Carney’s billion-dollar sub plan leaves giant ‘capability gap’

"I don't think there's any doubt that you're going to see a capability gap between the Victoria class and the follow-on submarines," says Defence Expert Joe Varner

Published Jul 07, 2026  •  2 minute read

Victoria class submarine at CFB Halifax on July 6, 2015. Postmedia file

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OTTAWA — Despite many observers praising Ottawa’s move to replace its outdated and decrepit submarine fleet, defence experts warn Ottawa’s sluggish procurement framework leaves Canada facing a dangerous “capability gap.”

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On Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney named Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) as the preferred provider for Canada to purchase up to 12 new diesel-electric Type 212CD submarines, with the first four boats expected to be delivered by 2034 — with Carney adding that the Royal Canadian Navy will continue using its obsolete, half-century-old Victoria-class submarines into the next decade.

That, says Macdonald-Laurier Institute Senior Fellow and former Defence Minister Policy Director Joe Varner, represents a risky gamble for Canada — considering that only one of Canada’s four remaining submarines are considered seaworthy.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that you’re going to see a capability gap between the Victoria class and the follow-on submarines,” Varner told the Toronto Sun.

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“This country has an awful tendency to foot-drag, be slow and really put itself in a space where it faces a rust-out and then has to try and rebuild capability.”

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Canada behind the game on world threat environment

While Varner said a new fleet of subs are invaluable in protecting Canada’s Arctic approaches, the anticipated 2034 delivery date doesn’t offer much help to Canada in the meantime.

“The perception of threats in this country is really concerning,” he said.

“All of our NATO allies are talking about the Russians being in a position to fight another major conventional war by 2029 — that’s three years away. In the Pacific, the Chinese are right now rehearsing naval blockade drills around Taiwan, and they’re mapping underwater for submarine operations.”

That, coupled with China’s recent unannounced test of submarine-based ballistic missiles and renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf, means there’s no shortage of threats facing Canada that the government doesn’t appear too concerned with.

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“There’s always the debate over nuclear versus conventional when it comes to operating in and around the Arctic,” Varner said, adding that while nuclear boats are capable for operating under Arctic ice for an indefinite period of time, operations under the ice cap tend to be noisy and brings with it its own challenges.

“The advantage of these submarines is their stealth and ability to sneak up on an opponent submarine,” he continued.

“If you’re a Chinese or Russian military planner, planning to operate submarines in the Arctic — I think that you’re going to be very concerned if Canada has 12 Type 212CD submarines sitting there waiting for you.”

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