Douglas Todd: NDP's housing plan is 'working,' says David Eby. Here's a reality check

'For David Eby to take direct credit for falling rents, he would also be suggesting he is proud of the weak economy and job losses,' says analyst Wendy Waters. Photo by Jason Payne /PNG

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“Our plan to make housing more affordable is working,” NDP leader David Eby has been repeating.

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“In terms of rental housing, the fastest and most consistent decline in rents we’ve seen across the entire country is here in British Columbia,” he said.

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“The average asking rent in our province, because of the interventions by our government, has driven rents down by 13 per cent in the last three years.” He placed extra emphasis on the word “because.”

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Eby, who called himself a “housing nerd” in Wednesday’s TV debate, did not cite any statistics to back up how he reduced house-buying costs. But he often says he’s deterring speculators and stopping dwellings from remaining empty.

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What’s the reality? The short answer is Eby may be able to take credit for housing policies of more than six years ago but, beyond that, other factors brought about the downward shift in prices.

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Why have rents eased for many of the two million British Columbians who are tenants?

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This is where Ottawa’s migration policy is key.

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Demand for rental units is down for the most part because population growth has flattened, says Wendy Waters, a B.C. real-estate analyst.

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“That’s largely due to federal policies to reduce international students and non-permanent residents. Now that the pressure is off from a tsunami of new arrivals to B.C., rents are returning to more appropriate levels.”

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An average B.C. rent has dropped to $2,403 a month, but it’s still the highest in Canada, according to Rentals.ca. The cross-country average is $2,034.

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On top of declining international migration, Waters says B.C.’s poor economy and weak job offerings have pushed 57,000 young would-be renters to leave the province in the past two years.

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“Therefore, for Eby to take direct credit for the falling rents, he would also be suggesting he is proud of the weak economy and job losses. If I were managing his campaign messaging, I would be careful there.”

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In addition, Waters said Eby can’t claim responsibility for the 14,000 new purpose-built rental units and new condos that have been built and rented since the beginning of 2024.

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“Most rental and condo construction decisions predate Eby’s tenure as premier by several years,” said Waters, noting he became leader in 2022.

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A typical new residential building, she said, takes three to eight years “to go from concept to occupancy.”

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To explain decreasing prices for rents and housing, David Williams, vice-president of economics for the Business Council of B.C., also points to the winding down of Canada’s recent migration boom, especially in temporary residents.

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“Previously, rapid population growth was the centre piece of the federal government’s economic growth strategy. Net total immigration reached around 1.3 million people per annum. That’s like adding another B.C. to Canada every 4.5 years!” Williams said by email.

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In 2024 B.C.’s population jumped by an unprecedented 144,000 new people, mostly through international migration, according to Statistics Canada.

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“That policy is what drove rental inflation in Canada to its highest since the 1980s — as newcomers gradually added to demand for entry-level housing rentals and jobs. The federal government has now reversed course.”