B.C. Election: Big jump in voters wanting change is the 'kiss of death' for NDP leader David Eby, says pollster

B.C. NDP leader David Eby attends a campaign event in Stanley Park in Vancouver on Oct. 19, 2026. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /PNG

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A new poll shows the B.C. Conservative party continues to lead in the run-up to this Saturday’s provincial election.

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On Tuesday, Innovative Research Group president Greg Lyle said the poll showed 43 per cent of decided voters were backing the B.C. Conservatives, compared to 38 per cent for the B.C. NDP. The B.C. Green party have 12 per cent of decided voters.

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This came after Monday’s poll from Angus Reid that found 46 per cent of decided voters are behind the B.C. Conservatives, compared to 43 per cent backing the B.C. NDP.

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Lyle noted that his poll found that there had been an eight per cent increase in the number of voters who think it’s time for a change in government, to 65 per cent, compared to when Eby called the election just under a month ago.

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“That’s the kiss of death,” Lyle said. “It’s three points higher than Christy Clark’s worst day when she was defeated and it’s like ten points higher than John Horgan’s worst day.”

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Lyle said that traditionally when an election is called there can be a slight increase in voters wanting a new government, but then it tends to stabilize.

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The Angus Reid and Innovative Research polls found that B.C. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson is considered to be a better potential leader than B.C. NDP leader David Eby.

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Lyle said his survey also found the B.C. Conservatives are most favoured among Punjabi and Chinese speakers, which could impact Surrey and Richmond swing ridings. Those ridings include Surrey-Guildford, Surrey-Fleetwood, Surrey City Centre, Surrey Panorama and Richmond-Steveston.

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“It’s very hard to win some of those Surrey seats if there’s that big a gap between the NDP and Conservatives among Punjabi speakers,” he said. “Similarly, it’s really hard to win a seat like Richmond-Steveston when you see the gap in terms of Chinese as the first language spoken.”

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The poll of 1,153 people conducted between Oct. 15-19 also showed the B.C. NDP has an opportunity to win over possible B.C. Green party voters, who still want more information before casting their vote.

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Lyle said it was unusual that a quarter of respondents who voted for the B.C. NDP in 2024 are unsure if they will do so this year, while 87 per cent of people who voted Conservative will do so again on Saturday.

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“That is highly unusual,” he said, noting that 14 per cent of previous B.C. NDP voters say they will back the Conservatives this time around.

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Meanwhile, on Tuesday Vancouver mayor-elect Pete Fry travelled to Vancouver Island to endorse B.C. Green party candidate and leader Emily Lowan.

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