B.C. Election: Leaders try to win over voters in Surrey and Vancouver Island as campaign winds down

B.C. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson makes a policy announcement about affordability at the Sabzi Mandi supermarket in Surrey earlier in October. Photo by Jason Payne /PNG

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Much like 2024, the NDP and Conservatives are waging a battle over Surrey and other suburban ridings in Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island as the campaign moves into the final few days.

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With polls showing the Conservatives ahead by anywhere from two to five points and final voting only four days away, experts say it is clear the B.C. NDP is spending the majority of leader David Eby’s tour focused on ridings it wants to retain, while B.C. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson is spending his time in places his party believes it can flip.

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“If you observe the outcome of the municipal elections, there was a lot of anti-incumbency rebellion,” said Shinder Purewal, a Kwantlen Polytechnic political scientist. “The NDP probably fears that people are going against the existing governments.”

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On Tuesday, Doerkson made a tour of southern Vancouver Island, which is traditionally NDP territory but also a region where the Conservatives believe they can make inroads, including in ridings such as Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Cowichan Valley and Saanich North and the Islands.

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Angelo Isidorou, a Conservative strategist and former campaign manager, said the other place the party hopes to be successful is in seat-rich Surrey where Doerkson’s team believe they can win nine out of 10 ridings after picking up six in 2024.

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Isidorou says both the NDP and Conservatives recognize the importance of the region and that is why both have made commitments to fund a new SkyTrain extension to Newton, a key campaign promise for Surrey Mayor Doug McCallum who was just elected for his fifth term as mayor.

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“For the rest of the week, I think you’re going to see (Doerkson) in the Lower Mainland, primarily Surrey as well as north of the Fraser,” said Isidorou. “If you win Surrey, you win the whole election.”

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Some other ridings the Conservatives believe they can pick up include Vancouver-Yaletown, where Doerkson unveiled his public safety plan, and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.

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Richmond-Steveston and Vancouver-Langara are also up for grabs, said Isidorou, although they have not featured prominently on the leader’s tour for the party.

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B.C. NDP leader David Eby crosses a fence following an election speech at Peace Arch Provincial Park in Surrey late last month. Photo by Jason Payne /PNG

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On the NDP side of the equation, Eby has made five visits to Surrey, compared to four for Doerkson, while also making multiple stops in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain and Kelowna Centre.

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Mike McKinnon, Western Canada director for Enterprise Canada and a former deputy communications director to the late NDP premier John Horgan, said that with 20 ridings decided by under 1,000 votes in 2024, it is more important than ever that leaders get out to speak to voters directly.

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He said he expects most of the 10 Surrey ridings to be up for grabs, and agreed with Isidorou that the region will likely determine the outcome of the election.

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“Whoever wins Surrey wins government. I think that’s been what people have been saying for a really long time,” said McKinnon.